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LAST 4 UPDATES IN BRIEF: [SEP 18] Weekend actuals posted. New figures shake up the top 10 movies a little. Signs edges out Austin Powers and XXX regains the upper hand over Minority Report. The changes only strengthen Doug's win. [SEP 10] Weekend actuals posted. New figures for Bourne Identity edge it over Sum of All Fears. Minority Report stays ahead of XXX. Doug's lead is substantial so I officially declare him the winner of this Box Office Challenge. Congratulations, you evil genius! Stay tuned for next year when the franchise muscle of X-Men 2, The Matrix Reloaded, Charlies Angels 2, Tomb Raider 2, Bad Boys 2, Spy Kids 3, and Fast and the Furious 2 all duke it out for supremacy. Of course, they will also have to contend with The Hulk. Entrants into next years challenge are welcome. We'll talk next April. Ciao. [SEP 9] If these latest posted estimates (*) hold up, Doug is kicking everyone's ass. Hard. ... Ouch. [SEP 4] Weekend actuals posted. No line-up changes from yesterday, in fact, it seems to be solidifying.... |
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Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2002
This page details my box office predictions for this summer's crop of blockbusters. Last year's challenger, Doug French, is back too. (See note at the bottom of this page.) All of our predictions are for movies released from May 1st through August 31st and all of our predictions were made before May 1st. Predictions will not be tampered with after May 1st — even if they make us look really stupid. Our top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders. Premiere Magazine's top 10 predictions are also included. Beck and Pook were added on July 10th because I felt like it. So there. |
| MOVIE | RELEASE DATE | WOODGE | DOUG FRENCH | PREMIERE | BECK | POOK | ACTUAL RANK / BOX OFFICE TOTAL |
| Spider-Man | May 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 / 403.7 mil |
| Star Wars II: Attack of the Clones | May 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 301.5 mil |
| Signs | Aug 2 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 3 / 213.0 mil |
| Austin Powers in Goldmember | Jul 26 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 4 / 209.6 mil |
| Men In Black II | Jul 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 / 190.4 mil |
| Scooby-Doo | Jun 14 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 6 / 152.5 mil | |
| Lilo & Stitch | Jun 21 | 13 | 8 | 7 / 143.1 mil | |||
| XXX | Aug 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 8 / 135.4 mil |
| Minority Report | Jun 21 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 / 131.3 mil |
| Mr. Deeds | Jun 28 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 10 / 125.1 mil |
| The Bourne Identity | Jun 14 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 11 / 119.5 mil | |
| The Sum of All Fears | May 31 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 12 / 118.5 mil | |
| Road To Perdition | Jul 12 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 13 / 102.5 mil |
| Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams | Aug 7 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 14 / 77.4 mil | |
| Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron | May 24 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 15 / 73.2 mil | ||
| Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood | Jun 7 | 20 | 19 | 16 / 69.3 mil | |||
| Insomnia | May 24 | 13 | 17 / 67.2 mil | ||||
| Stuart Little 2 | Jul 19 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 18 / 63.2 mil |
| Unfaithful | May 10 | 19 / 52.8 mil | |||||
| Like Mike | Jul 3 | 20 / 50.8 mil | |||||
| Reign of Fire | Jul 12 | 15 | 7 | 14 | / 42.8 mil | ||
| Windtalkers | Jun 14 | 14 | 20 | / 40.9 mil | |||
| About A Boy | May 17 | 19 | / 40.6 mil | ||||
| Enough | May 24 | 19 | / 39.2 mil | ||||
| Blue Crush | Aug 16 | / 38.9 mil | |||||
| K-19: The Widowmaker | Jul 19 | 9 | 18 | / 34.8 mil | |||
| Halloween: Resurrection | Jul 12 | 18 | / 30.2 mil | ||||
| Bad Company | Jun 7 | 20 | 15 | 15 | / 30.1 mil | ||
| Eight-Legged Freaks | Jul 17 | 9 | / 16.8 mil | ||||
| The Adventures of Pluto Nash | Aug 16 | 17 | 16 | / 4.3 mil |
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Deviation Score: The deviation score is a tally of the differences between predicted rank and actual rank of a movie. A perfect score would be zero.* The lower the score the better the prediction. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21. The best score to date is in bold type.
* (For example, last year I picked Shrek to come in 7th and it came in 1st. The difference is 6 which gets added to my tally.) |
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Woodge's top 20
[01] SW2: The Attack of the Clones [02] Spider-Man [03] Men in Black 2 [04] Austin Powers in Goldmember [05] The Minority Report [06] XXX [07] The Road to Perdition [08] Stuart Little 2 [09] K-19: The Widowmaker [10] Signs [11] Spy Kids 2 [12] Scooby-Doo [13] Lilo & Stitch [14] Windtalkers [15] Reign of Fire [16] The Sum of All Fears [17] The Bourne Identity [18] Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron [19] Bad Company [20] Mr. Deeds |
Doug French's top 20
[01] SW2: The Attack of the Clones [02] Spider-Man [03] Men in Black 2 [04] Austin Powers in Goldmember [05] Signs [06] XXX [07] The Road to Perdition [08] Lilo & Stitch [09] Minority Report [10] Stuart Little 2 [11] The Sum of All Fears [12] Spy Kids 2 [13] The Bourne Identity [14] Mr. Deeds [15] Bad Company [16] Scooby-Doo [17] Adventures of Pluto Nash [18] K-19: The Widowmaker [19] About A Boy [20] Divine Secrets ~ Ya-Ya Sisterhood |
Premiere Magazine's top 10
[01] SW2: The Attack of the Clones [02] Spider-Man [03] Austin Powers in Goldmember [04] Men in Black 2 [05] The Minority Report [06] XXX [07] Mr. Deeds [08] Stuart Little 2 [09] Signs [10] The Road to Perdition |
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Beck's top 20
[01] SW2: The Attack of the Clones [02] Spider-Man [03] Men in Black 2 [04] The Sum of All Fears [05] The Minority Report [06] XXX [07] Reign of Fire [08] Signs [09] Eight-Legged Freaks [10] Spy Kids 2 [11] Austin Powers in Goldmember [12] The Road to Perdition [13] Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron [14] Scooby-Doo [15] Stuart Little 2 [16] Adventures of Pluto Nash [17] Mr. Deeds [18] The Bourne Identity [19] Divine Secrets ~ Ya-Ya Sisterhood [20] Windtalkers |
Pook's top 20
[01] SW2: The Attack of the Clones [02] Spider-Man [03] Austin Powers in Goldmember [04] Minority Report [05] Scooby-Doo [06] Men in Black 2 [07] Mr. Deeds [08] Spy Kids 2 [09] Stuart Little 2 [10] The Sum of All Fears [11] The Bourne Identity [12] Signs [13] Insomnia [14] Reign of fire [15] Bad Company [16] XXX [17] The Road to Perdition [18] Halloween: Resurrection [19] Enough [20] Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron |
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What happened last summer?
Last summer everyone predicted that Pearl Harbor would be the number one winner. It actually came in fourth, following Shrek, Rush Hour 2, and The Mummy Returns in that order. Doug had the best prediction score edging me out 95 to my 100 points. To see last year's results, click here. |