woodge.com > movies > summer 2003 movie predictions
see you next year!
Last update:
[OCT 7] Weekend figures posted. AMERICAN WEDDING edged over DADDY DAY CARE and the rest of the line-up is unchanged. FINDING NEMO kicked ass, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN surprised almost everyone. GIGLI surprised no one. And, I don't think it's going to change any further so I declare the contest over and Loki is the winner. Although El Fuego is technically tied for first, Loki's top 10 score is better and he is the clear winner in the Weighted Deviation Score. Next year we will use the weighted formula outright. Congratulations Loki!
Previous 3 updates in brief:
[SEP 30] Weekend figures posted. FREAKY FRIDAY (the only mover), climbs over THE ITALIAN JOB, but this doesn't change much from last week. Perhaps next week will be the last post???
[SEP 23] Weekend figures posted. FREAKY FRIDAY (the only mover), climbs two spots. Loki and El Fuego are still tied but Loki still has the edge (see his top 10 score and the weighted deviation score). Things look to be wrapping up....
[SEP 16] Weekend figures posted. FREAKY FRIDAY pushes CHARLIE'S ANGELS lower and S.W.A.T. climbs over SPY KIDS. No changes in the top ten. Loki and El Fuego are tied but Loki has the edge (see his top 10, also).
Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2003
Welcome to the third annual SUMMER MOVIE PREDICTIONS (a.k.a. the BOX OFFICE CHALLENGE). On this page I detail my box office predictions for this summer's crop of blockbusters. Last year's challenger, and undefeated champion, FILMINGTON's Doug French, is back too. (Dang.) Also joining us from FILMINGTON is Doug's partner-in-crime, Eric Winick, and L.A. correspondent Marcello. Beck and Pook are also returning from last year and they are forces to be reckoned with. Maybe. This year we have many more participants. Rounding out the gang of 17 are: Ryan Sochol (from Northwestern U.); Scott Chew; the semi-anonymous Doug's Missus (from New York City); Richard the Buddha; Emmet Otter (from California); El Fuego (from Canada); the trickster Loki (from San Diego); Doug's sister Lisa (EFT); Bandaloop Swami (from India, based in Wisconsin), Sean Smylie (from Northern California), and The Dude (from New Orleans).

All participants have submitted their predictions to me by the due date of APRIL 30TH. All of the predictions are for movies released from MAY 1ST through AUGUST 31ST. Predictions will not be tampered with once the challenge begins, even if they make the participants look really stupid (see last year). The contest is closed to further participants. Got too many as it is.

Top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders.

   
Who's Who: THE CONTESTANTS

W WOODGE D DOUG FRENCH B BECK P POOK E ERIC WINICK
M MARCELLO R RYAN SOCHOL S SCOTT CHEW DM DOUG'S MISSUS RTB RICHARD THE BUDDHA
EO EMMET OTTER F EL FUEGO L LOKI EFT LISA BS BANDALOOP SWAMI
SS SEAN SMYLIE TD THE DUDE

MOVIE RELEASE DATE W D B P E M R S DM RTB EO F L EFT BS SS TD   ACTUAL RANK /
BOX OFFICE TOTAL
FINDING NEMO May 30 4 6 3 4 10 7 2 2 1 3 8 2 2 9 7   1 / 336.5 mil
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN Jul 9 17 12 10 11 15 12 9 3 3 12 5 10   2 / 297.9 mil
THE MATRIX RELOADED May 15 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1   3 / 281.2 mil
BRUCE ALMIGHTY May 23 12 7 15 13 11 8 17 8 6 6 10 7 6 4 4   4 / 242.4 mil
X2: X-MEN UNITED May 2 3 2 4 3 6 2 3 4 7 3 4 1 5 3 3 3 3   5 / 214.9 mil
TERMINATOR 3: RISE OF THE MACHINES Jul 2 2 3 2 2 2 12 5 1 14 10 5 5 4 1 8 7 6   6 / 150.3 mil
BAD BOYS II Jul 18 11 8 8 11 7 15 9 17 8 5 15 7 11 13 7 11 11   7 / 138.1 mil
THE HULK Jun 20 5 5 6 7 4 5 4 13 5 7 1 4 6 8 5 2 2   8 / 132.1 mil
2 FAST 2 FURIOUS Jun 6 9 9 13 14 12 6 8 18 16 10 6 16 12 13 14 12   9 / 127.1 mil
SEABISCUIT Jul 25 19 4 14 17 12 18 14 19 19 10 / 118.3 mil
S.W.A.T. Aug 8 18 14 10 20 13 18 11 17 19 12 18 16 15 18 11 / 115.8 mil
SPY KIDS 3-D: GAME OVER Jul 25 20 20 12 12 3 20 14 7 15 17 18 15 5 19 12 / 110.6 mil
FREAKY FRIDAY Aug 6 20 13 / 107.7 mil
THE ITALIAN JOB May 30 16 16 11 18 19 17 17 20 14 / 105.6 mil
AMERICAN WEDDING Aug 1 7 11 7 6 9 19 6 6 9 8 9 9 9 10 16 5 15 / 104.1 mil
DADDY DAY CARE May 9 15 17 4 18 14 18 14 16 / 104.0 mil
CHARLIE'S ANGELS: FULL THROTTLE Jun 27 6 4 5 5 5 3 7 10 3 4 7 11 17 4 4 10 9 17 / 100.7 mil
LEGALLY BLONDE 2: RED, WHITE, AND BLONDE Jul 2 10 10 9 16 8 10 12 9 6 8 12 16 20 9 6 8 18 / 89.8 mil
FREDDY VS. JASON Aug 15 17 20 15 19 / 81.8 mil
THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN Jul 11 14 15 16 14 13 20 19 15 15 8 17 20 / 66.3 mil
TOMB RAIDER 2: THE CRADLE OF LIFE Jul 25 8 13 14 8 13 9 11 3 9 15 13 8 11 17 16 65.2 mil
OPEN RANGE Aug 15 57.5 mil
28 DAYS LATER Jun 27 18 45.0 mil
THE LIZZIE MCGUIRE MOVIE May 2 42.7 mil
RUGRATS GO WILD Jun 13 13 16 15 16 10 13 16 6 39.4 mil
UPTOWN GIRLS Aug 15 18 36.8 mil
JEEPERS CREEPERS 2 Aug 29 14 20 34.8 mil
HOLLYWOOD HOMICIDE Jun 13 19 17 20 12 13 14 14 19 12 30.0 mil
JOHNNY ENGLISH Jul 18 10 28.0 mil
SINBAD: LEGEND OF THE SEVEN SEAS Jul 2 15 18 9 19 5 10 18 18 26.3 mil
DUMB AND DUMBERER Jun 13 13 11 13 7 13 26.1 mil
THE MEDALLION Aug 22 12 22.0 mil
THE IN-LAWS May 23 16 20.4 mil
DOWN WITH LOVE May 16 17 20 14 18 19 19 20.3 mil
WRONG TURN May 30 11 15.4 mil
MY BOSS'S DAUGHTER Aug 22 17 15.4 mil
ALEX AND EMMA Jun 20 19 10 15 14.2 mil
HOW TO DEAL Jul 18 16 17 14.1 mil
LE DIVORCE Aug 8 ¹ 19 20 9.0 mil
GIGLI Aug 1 16 16 18 11 20 5.7 mil
GRIND Aug 15 5.1 mil
FROM JUSTIN TO KELLY Jun 20 19 15 10 4.9 mil
MARCI X Aug 22 1.6 mil
DELAYED:
SHAOLIN SOCCER Sep 5 20 n/a
MATCHSTICK MEN Sep 12 19 14 11 13 n/a
THE FIGHTING TEMPTATIONS Sep 19 20 n/a
Deviation Score:
The deviation score is a tally of the differences between predicted rank and actual rank of a movie. A perfect score would be zero.* The lower the score the better the prediction. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21. Players are ranked 1 through 17 (first through last) in the RANK column.

TOP 20 TOP 10 RANK
W WOODGE 115 50 12
D DOUG FRENCH 91 41 3
B BECK 104 46 8
P POOK 102 60 6
E ERIC WINICK 130 60 14
M MARCELLO 121 55 13
R RYAN SOCHOL 110 50 10
S SCOTT CHEW 131 76 15
DM DOUG'S MISSUS 135 71 16
RTB RICHARD THE BUDDHA 112 42 11
EO EMMET OTTER 93 37 5
F EL FUEGO 75 38 1
L LOKI 75 24 1
EFT LISA 143 81 17
BS BANDALOOP SWAMI 92 30 4
SS SEAN SMYLIE 103 40 7
TD THE DUDE 108 40 9

* (For example, in 2001 I picked SHREK to come in 7th and it came in 1st. The difference is 6 which gets added to my tally.)

Weighted Deviation Score: This is an alternate version of the deviation score. Here's how it works:

Take the absolute value of a movie's deviation. For example: If it's picked it to come in 3rd, the actual rank is 7th, then the deviation is 4. Or, picked to come in 8th, actual rank is 3rd, deviation is 5.
Multiply the deviation by the weight. The weight is equal to 21 minus the actual ranking. Therefore, if a movie's rank is 5 then it's weight is 16. If the rank is 1, the weight is 20.
Tally these numbers.
Subtract this tally from 2000. The highest number is the best.

With this method, the most importance (i.e. weight) is given to the top rated movie and it decreases as you reach #20. As shown in this table, the score is labeled the W SCORE.

W SCORE RANK
W WOODGE 826 11
D DOUG FRENCH 1066 6
B BECK 962 8
P POOK 809 12
E ERIC WINICK 608 14
M MARCELLO 785 13
R RYAN SOCHOL 870 10
S SCOTT CHEW 519 16
DM DOUG'S MISSUS 521 15
RTB RICHARD THE BUDDHA 929 9
EO EMMET OTTER 1091 4
F EL FUEGO 1215 2
L LOKI 1316 1
EFT LISA 214 17
BS BANDALOOP SWAMI 1186 3
SS SEAN SMYLIE 1084 5
TD THE DUDE 984 7
  Notes:
• Release dates are subject to change and often do.
• ¹ New York/Los Angeles premiere date.
• THE HARD WORD will be released on June 13th in LA and NY and will get a wider release on June 27th.
• There are many more limited release movies scheduled to open during the summer. Too many to list here, but you can see where I get most of my release date info at this link.
• Contestant Beck asks: "Is there a cutoff date for box-office gross for ALL movies? Even if one or more of the movies is still in release and earning?"

There is no specific cut-off date. Last year's contest ended in mid-September because that is when the top 20 list had "stabilized." If movies were still earning by that point, it was dribbling in to such a degree that it wasn't affecting their ranking.

Rest assured that if a movie which opens later in the summer — mid to late August for example — and it's still pulling in some big box office numbers in late September, then the contest will still be ongoing.

I will only end the contest after two or three weeks of an unchanging box office rank.

Woodge's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Finding Nemo
[05] The Hulk
[06] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[07] American Wedding
[08] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[09] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[10] Legally Blonde 2
[11] Bad Boys II
[12] Bruce Almighty
[13] Rugrats Go Wild
[14] League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[15] Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
[16] The Italian Job
[17] Pirates of the Caribbean
[18] S.W.A.T.
[19] Seabiscuit
[20] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over

Doug French's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] X2: X-Men United
[03] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[04] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[05] The Hulk
[06] Finding Nemo
[07] Bruce Almighty
[08] Bad Boys II
[09] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[10] Legally Blonde 2
[11] American Wedding
[12] Pirates of the Caribbean
[13] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[14] S.W.A.T.
[15] Daddy Day Care
[16] The Italian Job
[17] Down With Love
[18] Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
[19] Hollywood Homicide
[20] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over

Beck's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines
[03] Finding Nemo
[04] X2: X-Men United
[05] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[06] The Hulk
[07] American Wedding
[08] Bad Boys II
[09] Legally Blonde 2
[10] Pirates Of The Caribbean
[11] The Italian Job
[12] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[13] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[14] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[15] Bruce Almighty
[16] Rugrats Go Wild
[17] Freddy vs. Jason
[18] 28 Days Later
[19] Matchstick Men
[20] Down With Love

Pook's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Finding Nemo
[05] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[06] American Wedding
[07] The Hulk
[08] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[09] Sinbad: Legend Of The Seven Seas
[10] S.W.A.T.
[11] Bad Boys II
[12] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[13] Bruce Almighty
[14] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[15] Rugrats Go Wild
[16] Legally Blonde 2
[17] Daddy Day Care
[18] Uptown Girls
[19] From Justin To Kelly
[20] Freddy Vs. Jason

Eric Winick's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[03] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[04] The Hulk
[05] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[06] X2: X-Men United
[07] Bad Boys II
[08] Legally Blonde 2
[09] American Wedding
[10] Finding Nemo
[11] Bruce Almighty
[12] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[13] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[14] Down With Love
[15] League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[16] Gigli
[17] Hollywood Homicide
[18] The Italian Job
[19] Alex and Emma
[20] S.W.A.T.

Marcello's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] X2: X-Men United
[03] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[04] Daddy Day Care
[05] The Hulk
[06] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[07] Finding Nemo
[08] Bruce Almighty
[09] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[10] Legally Blonde 2
[11] Pirates of the Caribbean
[12] Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines
[13] S.W.A.T.
[14] Matchstick Men
[15] Bad Boys II
[16] Rugrats Go Wild
[17] My Boss' Daughter
[18] Down with Love
[19] American Wedding
[20] Spy Kids 3

Ryan Sochol's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Finding Nemo
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] The Hulk
[05] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[06] American Wedding
[07] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[08] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[09] Bad Boys II
[10] Rugrats Go Wild
[11] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[12] Legally Blonde 2
[13] Dumb and Dumberer
[14] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[15] Pirates of the Caribbean
[16] League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[17] Bruce Almighty
[18] S.W.A.T.
[19] Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
[20] Hollywood Homicide

Scott Chew's top 20
[01] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[02] The Matrix Reloaded
[03] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[04] X2: X-Men United
[05] Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
[06] American Wedding
[07] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[08] Bruce Almighty
[09] Legally Blonde 2
[10] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[11] S.W.A.T.
[12] Pirates of the Caribbean
[13] The Hulk
[14] League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[15] From Justin to Kelly
[16] Gigli
[17] Bad Boys II
[18] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[19] The Italian Job
[20] Freaky Friday

Doug's Missus's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Finding Nemo
[03] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[04] Seabiscuit
[05] The Hulk
[06] Legally Blonde 2
[07] X2: X-Men United
[08] Bad Boys II
[09] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[10] Alex and Emma
[11] Wrong Turn
[12] The Medallion
[13] Rugrats Go Wild
[14] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[15] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[16] How to Deal
[17] S.W.A.T.
[18] Gigli
[19] Down With Love
[20] The Fighting Temptations

Richard the Buddha's top 20
[01] Finding Nemo
[02] The Matrix Reloaded
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[05] Bad Boys II
[06] Bruce Almighty
[07] The Hulk
[08] Legally Blonde 2
[09] American Wedding
[10] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[11] Matchstick Men
[12] Hollywood Homicide
[13] League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[14] Seabiscuit
[15] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[16] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[17] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[18] Daddy Day Care
[19] Le Divorce
[20] Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas

Emmet Otter's top 20
[01] The Hulk
[02] The Matrix Reloaded
[03] Finding Nemo
[04] X2: X-Men United
[05] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[06] Bruce Almighty
[07] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[08] American Wedding
[09] Pirates Of The Carribean
[10] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[11] Dumb & Dumberer
[12] Legally Blonde 2
[13] Hollywood Homicide
[14] Daddy Day Care
[15] Bad Boys II
[16] Rugrats Go Wild
[17] Seabiscuit
[18] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[19] S.W.A.T.
[20] League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen

El Fuego's top 20
[01] X2: X-Men United
[02] The Matrix Reloaded
[03] Pirates Of The Caribbean
[04] The Hulk
[05] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[06] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[07] Bad Boys II
[08] Finding Nemo
[09] American Wedding
[10] Bruce Almighty
[11] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[12] S.W.A.T.
[13] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[14] Hollywood Homicide
[15] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[16] Legally Blonde 2
[17] The Italian Job
[18] Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
[19] League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[20] Shaolin Soccer

Loki's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Finding Nemo
[03] Pirates of the Caribbean
[04] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[05] X2: X-Men United
[06] The Hulk
[07] Bruce Almighty
[08] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[09] American Wedding
[10] Johnny English
[11] Bad Boys II
[12] Seabiscuit
[13] Dumb and Dumberer
[14] Hollywood Homicide
[15] League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[16] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[17] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[18] S.W.A.T.
[19] Down With Love
[20] Legally Blonde 2

EFT (Lisa)'s top 20
[01] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[02] The Matrix Reloaded
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[05] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[06] Rugrats Go Wild
[07] Dumb and Dumberer
[08] The Hulk
[09] American Wedding
[10] From Justin to Kelly
[11] Gigli
[12] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[13] Bad Boys II
[14] Jeepers Creepers 2
[15] Alex and Emma
[16] The In-Laws
[17] How to Deal
[18] Seabiscuit
[19] Hollywood Homicide
[20] Le Divorce

Bandaloop Swami's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] Finding Nemo
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[05] The Hulk
[06] Bruce Almighty
[07] Bad Boys II
[08] Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines
[09] Legally Blonde 2
[10] American Wedding
[11] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[12] Pirates Of The Caribbean
[13] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[14] Seabiscuit
[15] League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[16] S.W.A.T.
[17] The Italian Job
[18] Sinbad: Legend Of The Seven Seas
[19] Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
[20] Jeepers Creepers 2

Sean Smylie's top 20
[01] Matrix Reloaded
[02] The Hulk
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Bruce Almighty
[05] Pirates of the Caribbean
[06] Legally Blonde 2
[07] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[08] League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[09] Finding Nemo
[10] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[11] Bad Boys II
[12] Hollywood Homicide
[13] Dumb and Dumberer
[14] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[15] S.W.A.T.
[16] American Wedding
[17] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[18] Daddy Day Care
[19] Seabiscuit
[20] The Italian Job

The Dude's top 20
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] The Hulk
[03] X2: X-Men United
[04] Bruce Almighty
[05] American Wedding
[06] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[07] Finding Nemo
[08] Legally Blonde 2
[09] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[10] Pirates of the Caribbean
[11] Bad Boys II
[12] 2 Fast 2 Furious
[13] Matchstick Men
[14] Daddy Day Care
[15] Freddy Vs Jason
[16] Tomb Raider 2: The Cradle Of Life
[17] League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
[18] S.W.A.T.
[19] Seabiscuit
[20] Gigli

PREMIERE Magazine's top 10
[01] The Matrix Reloaded
[02] X2: X-Men United
[03] Finding Nemo
[04] Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
[05] Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
[06] Bruce Almighty
[07] The Hulk
[08] Legally Blonde 2
[09] Pirates of the Caribbean
[10] Bad Boys II
What happened last summer?
Last summer everyone predicted STAR WARS: EPISODE II to be the number one movie but it was easily topped by SPIDER-MAN. These things happen. This is not an exact science. Doug came out way ahead that year which is why everyone hates him. To see last year's results, click here.