woodge.com > movies > summer 2004 movie predictions
see you next year!

Last update:
[OCT 5] Posted weekend actuals and this update marks one month of no change in the line-up. We're done folks. SHREK proved unbeatable and Knoxville wins the game. Congratulations. This is the last post for this year. See you next May.
Previous 3 updates:
[SEP 27] Posted weekend actuals. Marginal box office gains. And this marks three weeks of unchanged rankings. If it's the same story next week our work here is done.
[SEP 21] Posted weekend actuals. A few of the summer movies are still earning but none have changed position since last week (this marks 2 weeks unchanged). The end is nigh! NOTE: I added Rawbrick to the score rankings.
[SEP 14] Posted weekend actuals. No change in the line-up from the last update. Questions: Will THE PRINCESS DIARIES pass COLLATERAL? Will AVP pass THE NOTEBOOK? Will FAHRENHEIT 9/11 pass VAN HELSING? And most importantly: Will Woodge hold on to his respectable 4th place in the rankings? Stay tuned.

Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2004
Welcome to the fourth annual SUMMER MOVIE PREDICTIONS (a.k.a. the BOX OFFICE CHALLENGE). On this page I detail the box office predictions made by all the contestants for this summer's crop of blockbusters, hopefuls, and worthless crap.

All contestants have submitted their predictions to me by the due date of MAY 4TH. Although the contest was limited to 15 players, I've included one extra list from a stand-by player at the bottom of the page.

All of the predictions are for movies released from MAY 1ST through AUGUST 31ST. Predictions will not be tampered with once the challenge begins, even if they make the participants look really stupid (see last year).

Top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders.

   

Who's Who: THE CONTESTANTS

W WOODGE D DOUG FRENCH B BECK P POOK L LOKI
R RYAN SOCHOL S SCOTT CHEW MAR MARCELLO E MRS. T MAG MAGDA
SS SEAN SMYLIE H HOLLS MJ MOJOMARK K KNOXVILLE RUF RUFIO


MOVIE RELEASE DATE W D B P L R S MAR E MAG SS H MJ K RUF   ACTUAL RANK /
BOX OFFICE TOTAL
SHREK 2 May 19 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 5   1 / 436.8 mil
SPIDER-MAN 2 Jun 30 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1   2 / 371.8 mil
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN Jun 4 3 2 1 4 4 2 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 2   3 / 249.1 mil
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW May 28 7 10 7 3 8 7 20 9 10 12 8 7 12 4 4   4 / 186.7 mil
THE BOURNE SUPREMACY Jul 23 11 11 9 12 15 16 6 13 12 11 11 10 7 11 11   5 / 172.3 mil
I, ROBOT Jul 16 8 5 6 8 3 9 5 8 5 5 7 8 5 8 8   6 / 143.6 mil
TROY May 14 4 6 4 5 5 4 1 4 4 8 6 4 4 6 6   7 / 133.2 mil
VAN HELSING May 7 6 8 5 7 14 5 8 12 7 10 5 6 13 7 3   8 / 120.0 mil
FAHRENHEIT 9/11 Jun 25   9 / 119.1 mil
DODGEBALL: A TRUE UNDERDOG STORY Jun 18 19 15 20 17 11 16 17 15 15 17 10 / 114.2 mil
THE VILLAGE Jul 30 5 9 10 6 9 6 9 5 8 6 4 5 11 5 10 11 / 113.3 mil
COLLATERAL Aug 6 10 14 14 10 12 12 7 9 9 9 13 9 13 15 12 / 99.3 mil
THE PRINCESS DIARIES 2 Aug 11 15 17 19 18 13 19 18 18 18 18 13 / 93.8 mil
ANCHORMAN Jul 9 14 4 18 18 8 7 14 17 7 12 11 10 14 14 / 84.1 mil
THE NOTEBOOK Jun 25 15 / 80.3 mil
ALIEN VS. PREDATOR Aug 13 17 18 8 20 13 16 17 15 19 14 20 13 16 / 79.7 mil
THE TERMINAL Jun 18 12 15 11 13 19 11 12 6 6 14 10 12 15 10 7 17 / 77.0 mil
GARFIELD Jun 11 9 14 14 16 12 18 / 75.3 mil
WHITE CHICKS Jun 23 19 / 69.1 mil
THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE Jul 30 13 16 16 10 13 11 13 15 13 18 18 19 20 / 65.4 mil
THE STEPFORD WIVES Jun 11 18 7 15 11 14 19 19 17 8 16 59.5 mil
THE CHRONICLES OF RIDDICK Jun 11 16 12 12 20 10 10 16 15 13 20 17 14 57.6 mil
WITHOUT A PADDLE Aug 20 55.4 mil
KING ARTHUR Jul 7 9 7 17 11 6 18 14 10 4 14 9 17 9 12 51.9 mil
A CINDERELLA STORY Jul 16 14 18 19 51.3 mil
HERO Aug 27 51.1 mil
EXORCIST: THE BEGINNING Aug 20 19 18 19 41.5 mil
CATWOMAN Jul 23 13 20 17 17 19 17 6 9 40.1 mil
RAISING HELEN May 26 16 16 37.5 mil
ANACONDAS: THE HUNT FOR THE BLOOD ORCHID Aug 27 31.4 mil
AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS Jun 16 20 16 13 15 16 18 16 24.0 mil
NEW YORK MINUTE May 7 20 15 20 14.0 mil
SOUL PLANE May 28 20 13.9 mil
THUNDERBIRDS Jul 30 19 17 16 6.8 mil

DELAYED
CELLULAR Sep 17 20 n/a
SHALL WE DANCE? Oct 15 19 11 15 20 20 n/a
MINDHUNTERS 2005? 20 19 n/a

Deviation Score:
The deviation score is weighted. Here's how it works:

Take the absolute value of a movie's deviation. For example: If it's picked it to come in 3rd, the actual rank is 7th, then the deviation is 4. Or, picked to come in 8th, actual rank is 3rd, deviation is 5. (A perfect score is zero. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21.)
Multiply the deviation by the weight. The weight is equal to 21 minus the actual ranking. Therefore, if a movie's rank is 5 then it's weight is 16. If the rank is 1, the weight is 20.
Tally these numbers.
Subtract this tally from 2000. The highest number is the best.

With this method, the most importance (i.e. weight) is given to the top rated movie and it decreases as you reach #20.

SCORE RANK
W WOODGE 1282 4
D DOUG FRENCH 1239 7
B BECK 1293 2
P POOK 1227 8
L LOKI 1108 14
R RYAN SOCHOL 1122 13
S SCOTT CHEW 1042 16
MAR MARCELLO 1063 15
E MRS. T 1281 5
MAG MAGDA 1183 12
SS SEAN SMYLIE 1268 6
H HOLLS 1290 3
MJ MOJOMARK 1221 10
K KNOXVILLE 1393 1
RUF RUFIO 1226 9
RB RAWBRICK 1203 11
  Notes:
• Release dates are subject to change and often do.
• There are many more limited release movies scheduled to open during the summer. Too many to list here, but you can see where I get most of my release date info at this link.
• Movies need not be listed above to be contenders. They need only be domestic releases released somewhere from May 1st to August 31st.
• There's no specific cut-off date. Last year's contest ended in early October because that is when the top 20 list had "stabilized." If movies were still earning by that point, it was dribbling in to such a degree that it wasn't affecting their ranking.
Rest assured that if a movie which opens later in the summer — mid to late August for example — and it's still pulling in some big box office numbers in late September, then the contest will still be ongoing.
I will only end the contest after two or three weeks of an unchanging box office rank.

Premiere Mag's Pick's:
Premiere Magazine went and published their Summer Movie ish before May 1st! Sweet cracker sandwich! They list their top ten picks for the summer. Of course, they've been oh-so-wrong in the past too (CHARLIE'S ANGELS: FULL THROTTLE fourth?! PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN ninth?! Cha! Right!)
Here are their picks for 2004:

01 SPIDER-MAN 2
02 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
03 SHREK 2
04 THE VILLAGE
05 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
06 THE TERMINAL
07 TROY
08 VAN HELSING
09 COLLATERAL
10 I, ROBOT

Yeah, whadda they know?


Woodge's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[04] Troy
[05] The Village
[06] Van Helsing
[07] The Day After Tomorrow
[08] I, Robot
[09] King Arthur
[10] Collateral
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] The Terminal
[13] Catwoman
[14] Anchorman
[15] The Princess Diaries 2
[16] The Chronicles of Riddick
[17] Alien Vs. Predator
[18] The Stepford Wives
[19] Shall We Dance?
[20] Around The World In 80 Days

Doug French's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[03] Shrek 2
[04] Anchorman
[05] I, Robot
[06] Troy
[07] King Arthur
[08] Van Helsing
[09] The Village
[10] The Day After Tomorrow
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] The Chronicles of Riddick
[13] The Manchurian Candidate
[14] Collateral
[15] The Terminal
[16] Around the World in 80 Days
[17] The Princess Diaries 2
[18] Alien Vs. Predator
[19] Dodgeball
[20] New York Minute

Beck's top 20
[01] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Spider-Man 2
[04] Troy
[05] Van Helsing
[06] I, Robot
[07] The Day After Tomorrow
[08] Alien Vs. Predator
[09] The Bourne Supremacy
[10] The Village
[11] The Terminal
[12] The Chronicles Of Riddick
[13] Around The World In 80 Days
[14] Collateral
[15] Dodgeball
[16] The Manchurian Candidate
[17] King Arthur
[18] Anchorman
[19] Thunderbirds
[20] Catwoman

Pook's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] The Day After Tomorrow
[04] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[05] Troy
[06] The Village
[07] Van Helsing
[08] I, Robot
[09] Garfield
[10] Collateral
[11] King Arthur
[12] The Bourne Supremacy
[13] The Terminal
[14] A Cinderella Story
[15] Around The World In 80 Days
[16] The Manchurian Candidate
[17] Catwoman
[18] Anchorman
[19] The Princess Diaries 2
[20] Alien Vs. Predator

Loki's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] I, Robot
[04] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[05] Troy
[06] King Arthur
[07] The Stepford Wives
[08] The Day After Tomorrow
[09] The Village
[10] The Manchurian Candidate
[11] Shall We Dance?
[12] Collateral
[13] Alien Vs. Predator
[14] Van Helsing
[15] The Bourne Supremacy
[16] Around The World In 80 Days
[17] Catwoman
[18] The Princess Diaries 2
[19] The Terminal
[20] The Chronicles of Riddick

Ryan Sochol's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[03] Shrek 2
[04] Troy
[05] Van Helsing
[06] The Village
[07] The Day After Tomorrow
[08] Anchorman
[09] I, Robot
[10] The Chronicles of Riddick
[11] The Terminal
[12] Collateral
[13] The Princess Diaries 2
[14] Garfield
[15] The Stepford Wives
[16] The Bourne Supremacy
[17] Thunderbirds
[18] King Arthur
[19] Catwoman
[20] Dodgeball

Scott Chew's top 20
[01] Troy
[02] Spider-Man 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban
[04] Shrek 2
[05] I, Robot
[06] The Bourne Supremacy
[07] Anchorman
[08] Van Helsing
[09] The Village
[10] The Chronicles Of Riddick
[11] The Stepford Wives
[12] The Terminal
[13] The Manchurian Candidate
[14] King Arthur
[15] New York Minute
[16] Alien Vs. Predator
[17] Dodgeball
[18] Around The World In 80 Days
[19] Exorcist: The Beginning
[20] The Day After Tomorrow

Marcello's top 20
[01] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Spider-Man 2
[04] Troy
[05] The Village
[06] The Terminal
[07] Collateral
[08] I, Robot
[09] The Day After Tomorrow
[10] King Arthur
[11] The Manchurian Candidate
[12] Van Helsing
[13] The Bourne Supremacy
[14] Anchorman
[15] Shall We Dance?
[16] The Chronicles of Riddick
[17] Alien vs. Predator
[18] Exorcist: The Beginning
[19] The Princess Diaries 2
[20] Soul Plane

Mrs. T's top 20
[01] Shrek 2
[02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[03] Spider-Man 2
[04] Troy
[05] I, Robot
[06] The Terminal
[07] Van Helsing
[08] The Village
[09] Collateral
[10] The Day After Tomorrow
[11] Dodgeball
[12] The Bourne Supremacy
[13] The Manchurian Candidate
[14] The Stepford Wives
[15] The Chronicles of Riddick
[16] Thunderbirds
[17] Anchorman
[18] The Princess Diaries 2
[19] Exorcist: The Beginning
[20] Cellular

Magda's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[04] King Arthur
[05] I, Robot
[06] The Village
[07] Anchorman
[08] Troy
[09] Collateral
[10] Van Helsing
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] The Day After Tomorrow
[13] The Chronicles of Riddick
[14] The Terminal
[15] The Manchurian Candidate
[16] Dodgeball
[17] Catwoman
[18] A Cinderella Story
[19] The Stepford Wives
[20] New York Minute

Sean Smylie's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[04] The Village
[05] Van Helsing
[06] Troy
[07] I, Robot
[08] The Day After Tomorrow
[09] Collateral
[10] The Terminal
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] Anchorman
[13] The Manchurian Candidate
[14] King Arthur
[15] Alien Vs. Predator
[16] Raising Helen
[17] Dodgeball
[18] The Princess Diaries 2
[19] The Stepford Wives
[20] The Chronicles of Riddick

Holls's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[04] Troy
[05] The Village
[06] Van Helsing
[07] The Day after Tomorrow
[08] I, Robot
[09] King Arthur
[10] The Bourne Supremacy
[11] Anchorman
[12] The Terminal
[13] Collateral
[14] Garfield
[15] Dodgeball
[16] Raising Helen
[17] The Stepford Wives
[18] The Manchurian Candidate
[19] Alien Vs. Predator
[20] Shall We Dance?

Mojomark's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban
[04] Troy
[05] I, Robot
[06] Catwoman
[07] The Bourne Supremacy
[08] The Stepford Wives
[09] Collateral
[10] Anchorman
[11] The Village
[12] The Day After Tomorrow
[13] Van Helsing
[14] Alien Vs. Predator
[15] The Terminal
[16] Garfield
[17] King Arthur
[18] The Manchurian Candidate
[19] A Cinderella Story
[20] Mindhunters

Knoxville's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Shrek 2
[03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[04] The Day After Tomorrow
[05] The Village
[06] Troy
[07] Van Helsing
[08] I, Robot
[09] King Arthur
[10] The Terminal
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] Garfield
[13] Collateral
[14] Anchorman
[15] Dodgeball
[16] Around The World In 80 Days
[17] The Chronicles of Riddick
[18] The Princess Diaries 2
[19] The Manchurian Candidate
[20] Alien Vs. Predator

Rufio's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban
[03] Van Helsing
[04] The Day After Tomorrow
[05] Shrek 2
[06] Troy
[07] The Terminal
[08] I, Robot
[09] Catwoman
[10] The Village
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] King Arthur
[13] Alien Vs. Predator
[14] The Chronicles of Riddick
[15] Collateral
[16] The Stepford Wives
[17] Dodgeball
[18] The Princess Diaries 2
[19] Mindhunters
[20] Shall We Dance?

Rawbrick's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2
[02] The Day After Tomorrow
[03] Shrek 2
[04] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban
[05] The Village
[06] Troy
[07] The Terminal
[08] King Arthur
[09] New York Minute
[10] Van Helsing
[11] The Bourne Supremacy
[12] Dodgeball
[13] Collateral
[14] The Chronicles Of Riddick
[15] I, Robot
[16] Alien Vs. Predator
[17] Exorcist: The Beginning
[18] Anchorman
[19] A Cinderella Story
[20] White Chicks


What happened last summer?
Last summer FINDING NEMO trounced the favorite, THE MATRIX RELOADED, which in turn was beat by PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN which surprised nearly everybody. Loki unseated Doug as the winner in 2003. For more about last year, see Summer 2003.