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Last update: [OCT 5] Posted weekend actuals and this update marks one month of no change in the line-up. We're done folks. SHREK proved unbeatable and Knoxville wins the game. Congratulations. This is the last post for this year. See you next May. Previous 3 updates: [SEP 27] Posted weekend actuals. Marginal box office gains. And this marks three weeks of unchanged rankings. If it's the same story next week our work here is done. [SEP 21] Posted weekend actuals. A few of the summer movies are still earning but none have changed position since last week (this marks 2 weeks unchanged). The end is nigh! NOTE: I added Rawbrick to the score rankings. [SEP 14] Posted weekend actuals. No change in the line-up from the last update. Questions: Will THE PRINCESS DIARIES pass COLLATERAL? Will AVP pass THE NOTEBOOK? Will FAHRENHEIT 9/11 pass VAN HELSING? And most importantly: Will Woodge hold on to his respectable 4th place in the rankings? Stay tuned. |
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Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2004
Welcome to the fourth annual SUMMER MOVIE PREDICTIONS (a.k.a. the BOX OFFICE CHALLENGE). On this page I detail the box office predictions made by all the contestants for this summer's crop of blockbusters, hopefuls, and worthless crap. All contestants have submitted their predictions to me by the due date of MAY 4TH. Although the contest was limited to 15 players, I've included one extra list from a stand-by player at the bottom of the page. All of the predictions are for movies released from MAY 1ST through AUGUST 31ST. Predictions will not be tampered with once the challenge begins, even if they make the participants look really stupid (see last year). Top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders. |
Who's Who: THE CONTESTANTS
| W | WOODGE | D | DOUG FRENCH | B | BECK | P | POOK | L | LOKI |
| R | RYAN SOCHOL | S | SCOTT CHEW | MAR | MARCELLO | E | MRS. T | MAG | MAGDA |
| SS | SEAN SMYLIE | H | HOLLS | MJ | MOJOMARK | K | KNOXVILLE | RUF | RUFIO |
| MOVIE | RELEASE DATE | W | D | B | P | L | R | S | MAR | E | MAG | SS | H | MJ | K | RUF | ACTUAL RANK / BOX OFFICE TOTAL |
| SHREK 2 | May 19 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 / 436.8 mil |
| SPIDER-MAN 2 | Jun 30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 371.8 mil |
| HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN | Jun 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 / 249.1 mil |
| THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW | May 28 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 / 186.7 mil |
| THE BOURNE SUPREMACY | Jul 23 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 5 / 172.3 mil |
| I, ROBOT | Jul 16 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 / 143.6 mil |
| TROY | May 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 / 133.2 mil |
| VAN HELSING | May 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 8 / 120.0 mil |
| FAHRENHEIT 9/11 | Jun 25 | 9 / 119.1 mil | |||||||||||||||
| DODGEBALL: A TRUE UNDERDOG STORY | Jun 18 | 19 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 10 / 114.2 mil | |||||
| THE VILLAGE | Jul 30 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 11 / 113.3 mil |
| COLLATERAL | Aug 6 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 12 / 99.3 mil | |
| THE PRINCESS DIARIES 2 | Aug 11 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 13 / 93.8 mil | |||||
| ANCHORMAN | Jul 9 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 14 / 84.1 mil | ||
| THE NOTEBOOK | Jun 25 | 15 / 80.3 mil | |||||||||||||||
| ALIEN VS. PREDATOR | Aug 13 | 17 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 20 | 13 | 16 / 79.7 mil | |||
| THE TERMINAL | Jun 18 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 17 / 77.0 mil |
| GARFIELD | Jun 11 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 18 / 75.3 mil | ||||||||||
| WHITE CHICKS | Jun 23 | 19 / 69.1 mil | |||||||||||||||
| THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE | Jul 30 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 20 / 65.4 mil | |||
| THE STEPFORD WIVES | Jun 11 | 18 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 8 | 16 | 59.5 mil | |||||
| THE CHRONICLES OF RIDDICK | Jun 11 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 57.6 mil | |||
| WITHOUT A PADDLE | Aug 20 | 55.4 mil | |||||||||||||||
| KING ARTHUR | Jul 7 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 51.9 mil | |
| A CINDERELLA STORY | Jul 16 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 51.3 mil | ||||||||||||
| HERO | Aug 27 | 51.1 mil | |||||||||||||||
| EXORCIST: THE BEGINNING | Aug 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 41.5 mil | ||||||||||||
| CATWOMAN | Jul 23 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 40.1 mil | |||||||
| RAISING HELEN | May 26 | 16 | 16 | 37.5 mil | |||||||||||||
| ANACONDAS: THE HUNT FOR THE BLOOD ORCHID | Aug 27 | 31.4 mil | |||||||||||||||
| AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS | Jun 16 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 24.0 mil | ||||||||
| NEW YORK MINUTE | May 7 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 14.0 mil | ||||||||||||
| SOUL PLANE | May 28 | 20 | 13.9 mil | ||||||||||||||
| THUNDERBIRDS | Jul 30 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 6.8 mil | ||||||||||||
| DELAYED | |||||||||||||||||
| CELLULAR | Sep 17 | 20 | n/a | ||||||||||||||
| SHALL WE DANCE? | Oct 15 | 19 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 20 | n/a | ||||||||||
| MINDHUNTERS | 2005? | 20 | 19 | n/a | |||||||||||||
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Deviation Score:
With this method, the most importance (i.e. weight) is given to the top rated movie and it decreases as you reach #20.
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Notes:
• Release dates are subject to change and often do. • There are many more limited release movies scheduled to open during the summer. Too many to list here, but you can see where I get most of my release date info at this link. • Movies need not be listed above to be contenders. They need only be domestic releases released somewhere from May 1st to August 31st. • There's no specific cut-off date. Last year's contest ended in early October because that is when the top 20 list had "stabilized." If movies were still earning by that point, it was dribbling in to such a degree that it wasn't affecting their ranking. Premiere Mag's Pick's:
01 SPIDER-MAN 2
Yeah, whadda they know?
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Take the absolute value of a movie's deviation. For example: If it's picked it to come in 3rd, the actual rank is 7th, then the deviation is 4. Or, picked to come in 8th, actual rank is 3rd, deviation is 5. (A perfect score is zero. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21.)
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Woodge's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [04] Troy [05] The Village [06] Van Helsing [07] The Day After Tomorrow [08] I, Robot [09] King Arthur [10] Collateral [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] The Terminal [13] Catwoman [14] Anchorman [15] The Princess Diaries 2 [16] The Chronicles of Riddick [17] Alien Vs. Predator [18] The Stepford Wives [19] Shall We Dance? [20] Around The World In 80 Days |
Doug French's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [03] Shrek 2 [04] Anchorman [05] I, Robot [06] Troy [07] King Arthur [08] Van Helsing [09] The Village [10] The Day After Tomorrow [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] The Chronicles of Riddick [13] The Manchurian Candidate [14] Collateral [15] The Terminal [16] Around the World in 80 Days [17] The Princess Diaries 2 [18] Alien Vs. Predator [19] Dodgeball [20] New York Minute |
Beck's top 20
[01] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban [02] Shrek 2 [03] Spider-Man 2 [04] Troy [05] Van Helsing [06] I, Robot [07] The Day After Tomorrow [08] Alien Vs. Predator [09] The Bourne Supremacy [10] The Village [11] The Terminal [12] The Chronicles Of Riddick [13] Around The World In 80 Days [14] Collateral [15] Dodgeball [16] The Manchurian Candidate [17] King Arthur [18] Anchorman [19] Thunderbirds [20] Catwoman |
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Pook's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] The Day After Tomorrow [04] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [05] Troy [06] The Village [07] Van Helsing [08] I, Robot [09] Garfield [10] Collateral [11] King Arthur [12] The Bourne Supremacy [13] The Terminal [14] A Cinderella Story [15] Around The World In 80 Days [16] The Manchurian Candidate [17] Catwoman [18] Anchorman [19] The Princess Diaries 2 [20] Alien Vs. Predator |
Loki's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] I, Robot [04] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [05] Troy [06] King Arthur [07] The Stepford Wives [08] The Day After Tomorrow [09] The Village [10] The Manchurian Candidate [11] Shall We Dance? [12] Collateral [13] Alien Vs. Predator [14] Van Helsing [15] The Bourne Supremacy [16] Around The World In 80 Days [17] Catwoman [18] The Princess Diaries 2 [19] The Terminal [20] The Chronicles of Riddick |
Ryan Sochol's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [03] Shrek 2 [04] Troy [05] Van Helsing [06] The Village [07] The Day After Tomorrow [08] Anchorman [09] I, Robot [10] The Chronicles of Riddick [11] The Terminal [12] Collateral [13] The Princess Diaries 2 [14] Garfield [15] The Stepford Wives [16] The Bourne Supremacy [17] Thunderbirds [18] King Arthur [19] Catwoman [20] Dodgeball |
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Scott Chew's top 20
[01] Troy [02] Spider-Man 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban [04] Shrek 2 [05] I, Robot [06] The Bourne Supremacy [07] Anchorman [08] Van Helsing [09] The Village [10] The Chronicles Of Riddick [11] The Stepford Wives [12] The Terminal [13] The Manchurian Candidate [14] King Arthur [15] New York Minute [16] Alien Vs. Predator [17] Dodgeball [18] Around The World In 80 Days [19] Exorcist: The Beginning [20] The Day After Tomorrow |
Marcello's top 20
[01] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [02] Shrek 2 [03] Spider-Man 2 [04] Troy [05] The Village [06] The Terminal [07] Collateral [08] I, Robot [09] The Day After Tomorrow [10] King Arthur [11] The Manchurian Candidate [12] Van Helsing [13] The Bourne Supremacy [14] Anchorman [15] Shall We Dance? [16] The Chronicles of Riddick [17] Alien vs. Predator [18] Exorcist: The Beginning [19] The Princess Diaries 2 [20] Soul Plane |
Mrs. T's top 20
[01] Shrek 2 [02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [03] Spider-Man 2 [04] Troy [05] I, Robot [06] The Terminal [07] Van Helsing [08] The Village [09] Collateral [10] The Day After Tomorrow [11] Dodgeball [12] The Bourne Supremacy [13] The Manchurian Candidate [14] The Stepford Wives [15] The Chronicles of Riddick [16] Thunderbirds [17] Anchorman [18] The Princess Diaries 2 [19] Exorcist: The Beginning [20] Cellular |
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Magda's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [04] King Arthur [05] I, Robot [06] The Village [07] Anchorman [08] Troy [09] Collateral [10] Van Helsing [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] The Day After Tomorrow [13] The Chronicles of Riddick [14] The Terminal [15] The Manchurian Candidate [16] Dodgeball [17] Catwoman [18] A Cinderella Story [19] The Stepford Wives [20] New York Minute |
Sean Smylie's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [04] The Village [05] Van Helsing [06] Troy [07] I, Robot [08] The Day After Tomorrow [09] Collateral [10] The Terminal [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] Anchorman [13] The Manchurian Candidate [14] King Arthur [15] Alien Vs. Predator [16] Raising Helen [17] Dodgeball [18] The Princess Diaries 2 [19] The Stepford Wives [20] The Chronicles of Riddick |
Holls's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [04] Troy [05] The Village [06] Van Helsing [07] The Day after Tomorrow [08] I, Robot [09] King Arthur [10] The Bourne Supremacy [11] Anchorman [12] The Terminal [13] Collateral [14] Garfield [15] Dodgeball [16] Raising Helen [17] The Stepford Wives [18] The Manchurian Candidate [19] Alien Vs. Predator [20] Shall We Dance? |
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Mojomark's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban [04] Troy [05] I, Robot [06] Catwoman [07] The Bourne Supremacy [08] The Stepford Wives [09] Collateral [10] Anchorman [11] The Village [12] The Day After Tomorrow [13] Van Helsing [14] Alien Vs. Predator [15] The Terminal [16] Garfield [17] King Arthur [18] The Manchurian Candidate [19] A Cinderella Story [20] Mindhunters |
Knoxville's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Shrek 2 [03] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [04] The Day After Tomorrow [05] The Village [06] Troy [07] Van Helsing [08] I, Robot [09] King Arthur [10] The Terminal [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] Garfield [13] Collateral [14] Anchorman [15] Dodgeball [16] Around The World In 80 Days [17] The Chronicles of Riddick [18] The Princess Diaries 2 [19] The Manchurian Candidate [20] Alien Vs. Predator |
Rufio's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner of Azkaban [03] Van Helsing [04] The Day After Tomorrow [05] Shrek 2 [06] Troy [07] The Terminal [08] I, Robot [09] Catwoman [10] The Village [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] King Arthur [13] Alien Vs. Predator [14] The Chronicles of Riddick [15] Collateral [16] The Stepford Wives [17] Dodgeball [18] The Princess Diaries 2 [19] Mindhunters [20] Shall We Dance? |
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Rawbrick's top 20
[01] Spider-Man 2 [02] The Day After Tomorrow [03] Shrek 2 [04] Harry Potter ~ Prisoner Of Azkaban [05] The Village [06] Troy [07] The Terminal [08] King Arthur [09] New York Minute [10] Van Helsing [11] The Bourne Supremacy [12] Dodgeball [13] Collateral [14] The Chronicles Of Riddick [15] I, Robot [16] Alien Vs. Predator [17] Exorcist: The Beginning [18] Anchorman [19] A Cinderella Story [20] White Chicks |
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What happened last summer?
Last summer FINDING NEMO trounced the favorite, THE MATRIX RELOADED, which in turn was beat by PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN which surprised nearly everybody. Loki unseated Doug as the winner in 2003. For more about last year, see Summer 2003. |