summer 2005 movie predictions

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knoxville wins again! dang.

Last update:
NOV 01 Wrapping it up! We're done here and Knoxville wins for the second year in a row. Congratulations, dude. In the past week seven summer flicks made some more green (the Martians, the Crashers, Charlie, the Virgin, the Penguins, 4 bros, and Sky High.) But none have improved their position or look likely to.

Join us next year when such big hitters as MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 3 and POSEIDON and THE DA VINCI CODE and OVER THE HEDGE and X-MEN 3 and OMEN 666 and CARS and THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS 3 and ERAGON and CHARLOTTE'S WEB and SUPERMAN RETURNS and PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST and GHOST RIDER and GARFIELD 2 and MIAMI VICE duke it out for supremacy.

Until then. [cue end credits]

Previous 3 updates:
OCT 25 Fourteen summer movies made money in the past week. None made enough to change their position in the line-up. And it looks doubtful that they will. If it's the same story next week, we're done.
OCT 20 Would you believe there's a change at this late date? Yep, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory has edged over Batman Begins in earnings! Other than that, not much is new. And I don't think we'll see too many changes from this point. We'll see.
OCT 11 Seventeen movies below added some dollars to their coffers but there were no changes in the line-up. The end is near!

Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2005
Welcome to the fifth annual SUMMER MOVIE PREDICTIONS. On this page I detail the box office predictions made by all the contestants for this summer's crop of blockbusters, hopefuls, and worthless crap.

All eligible contestants have submitted their predictions to me by the due date of MAY 3RD. Although this contest is limited to 15 players, I have included the predictions of two latecomers at the bottom of the page.

All of the predictions are for movies released from MAY 1ST through AUGUST 31ST. Predictions will not be tampered with once the challenge begins, even if they make the participants look really stupid (see last year).

Top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders.

YAHOO BOX OFFICE BOX OFFICE MOJO

See you next year.

The Contestants:

W WOODGE DF DOUG FRENCH B BECK P POOK JB J-DOG

K KNOXVILLE SS SEAN SMYLIE H HOLLS ET MRS. T M MAGDA

L LOKI SC SCOTT CHEW MP MARCELLO RS RYAN SOCHOL RB RAWBRICK

MOVIE	RELEASE DATE	W	DF	B	P	JB	K	SS	H	ET	M	L	SC	MP	RS	RB	ACTUAL RANK / BOX OFFICE TOTAL
STAR WARS: EPISODE III: REVENGE OF THE SITH	May 19	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1	3	2	1	2	1 / 380.3 mil
WAR OF THE WORLDS	June 29	4	2	2	3	4	2	2	2	3	4	5	2	1	5	3	2 / 234.1mil
WEDDING CRASHERS	July 15	12	13	14		15	14	11	7	9	10	18			10		3 / 208.1 mil
CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY	July 15	7	14	7	8	3	3	5	11	7	6	4	1	5	4	7	4 / 205.9 mil
BATMAN BEGINS	June 15	3	3	4	14	8	4	3	5	8	1	3	9	3	2	1	5 / 205.3 mil
MADAGASCAR	May 27	2	4	5	2	2	5	4	4	2	2	2	4	8	3	4	6 / 193.1 mil
MR. AND MRS. SMITH	June 10	6	7	12	13	6	9	8	3	18	8	11	5	6	7	5	7 / 186.2 mil
THE LONGEST YARD	May 27	11	10	6	4	10	8	7		10	5	8	10		14		8 / 158.1 mil
FANTASTIC FOUR	July 8	5	5	3	5	5	6	6	6	5	7	6	7	7	6	13	9 / 154.5 mil
THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN	Aug 19																10 / 107.5 mil
MONSTER-IN-LAW	May 13		19														11 / 82.9 mil
THE DUKES OF HAZZARD	Aug 5	14	18	11			12	17	13	6	17	17	12	12	12	17	12 / 80.3 mil
MARCH OF THE PENGUINS	June 24																13 / 76.5 mil
FOUR BROTHERS	Aug 12																14 / 74.2 mil
HERBIE: FULLY LOADED	June 22	13	17	17	12		15	19	9	11		13	8		20	19	15 / 66.0 mil
SKY HIGH	July 29																16 / 63.6 mil
BEWITCHED	June 24	17	9	10	7	13	18	15	12	14	16	12	14		19	18	17 / 62.3 mil
CINDERELLA MAN	June 3	15	12	18	6	14	13	12	16	15		15	16	13	11	11	18 / 61.6 mil
RED EYE	Aug 19	18												16		12	19 / 57.9 mil
CRASH	May 6					20						20					20 / 53.4 mil
KICKING & SCREAMING	May 13	20	16	15	10		17	18	10	4	12			20	16		52.6 mil
THE SKELETON KEY	Aug 12					17											47.8 mil
KINGDOM OF HEAVEN	May 6	8	11	9	11	7	11	9	8			7	6	4	9	8	47.4 mil
MUST LOVE DOGS	July 29					19				20							43.9 mil
THE ADVENTURES OF SHARK BOY & LAVA GIRL	June 10		15		18		19			16			17	18			39.2 mil
THE SISTERHOOD OF THE TRAVELING PANTS	June 1	19								19	15						39.0 mil
THE BROTHERS GRIMM	Aug 26			16		16		20	18				20		15	15	37.9 mil
THE ISLAND	July 22	10	6	13	17	9	7	10	15	12	14	9		9	8	6	35.8 mil
THE BAD NEWS BEARS	July 22	16	20		9			14	17			19	15	19	13		32.9 mil
HOUSE OF WAX	May 6				20		16				13		11				32.0 mil
STEALTH	July 29	9	8	8	16	11	10	13	14	17	11	14	19	10		16	31.7 mil
DARK WATER	July 8			20	15	18			20	13	20	16	18			9	25.5 mil
UNLEASHED	May 13										9					10	24.5 mil
DEUCE BIGALOW: EUROPEAN GIGOLO	Aug 12													17	17		22.3 mil
GEORGE ROMERO'S LAND OF THE DEAD	June 24													15		14	20.4 mil
VALIANT	Aug 19				19	12					18						19.4 mil
REBOUND	July 1														18		16.8 mil
THE PERFECT MAN	June 17										19						16.2 mil
THE CAVE	Aug 26								19					11			14.9 mil

DELAYED
THE PINK PANTHER	Feb 10			19			20	16				10	13	14		20	n/a
CRY_WOLF	Sep 23																n/a
DOMINO	Nov 4																n/a

Deviation Score:
The deviation score is weighted. Here's how it works:

Take the absolute value of a movie's deviation. For example: If it's picked it to come in 3rd, the actual rank is 7th, then the deviation is 4. Or, picked to come in 8th, actual rank is 3rd, deviation is 5. (A perfect score is zero. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21.)
Multiply the deviation by the weight. The weight is equal to 21 minus the actual ranking. Therefore, if a movie's rank is 5 then it's weight is 16. If the rank is 1, the weight is 20.
Tally these numbers.
Subtract this tally from 2000. The highest number is the best.

With this method, the most importance (i.e. weight) is given to the top rated movie and it decreases as you reach #20.

		SCORE	RANK
W	WOODGE	1155	5
DF	DOUG FRENCH	1054	10
B	BECK	1139	6
P	POOK	662	17
JB	J-DOG	1025	12
K	KNOXVILLE	1307	1
SS	SEAN SMYLIE	1255	2
H	HOLLS	1083	9
ET	MRS. T	1023	13
M	MAGDA	1103	8
L	LOKI	1040	11
SC	SCOTT CHEW	989	14
MP	MARCELLO	918	15
RS	RYAN SOCHOL	1187	4
RB	RAWBRICK	779	16
EF	EL FUEGO	1200	3
KS	KEVIN SINCLAIR	1138	7

Notes:
• Release dates are subject to change and often do.
• Numerous limited release movies scheduled to open during the summer. Too many to list here, but most of my release date info comes from either Yahoo! or Box Office Mojo.
• Movies need not be listed above to be contenders. They need only be domestic releases released somewhere from May 1st to August 31st.
• There's no specific cut-off date. Contests typically end in early October because that is when the top 20 list "stabilizes." That is, if movies are still earning by that point, the receipts are dribbling in to such a degree that they do not affect their ranking.
• I will only end the contest after two or three weeks of an unchanging box office rank.

Premiere Mag's Pick's:
Premiere Magazine's top 10 picks arrived in my mailbox April 10th.

Here are their top 10 picks for 2005:

01 STAR WARS: EPISODE III: REVENGE OF THE SITH
02 MADAGASCAR
03 WAR OF THE WORLDS
04 BATMAN BEGINS
05 KINGDOM OF HEAVEN
06 MR AND MRS SMITH
07 CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY
08 STEALTH
09 FANTASTIC FOUR
10 CINDERELLA MAN

Woodge's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] MADAGASCAR [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] WAR OF THE WORLDS [05] FANTASTIC FOUR [06] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [07] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [08] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [09] STEALTH [10] THE ISLAND [11] THE LONGEST YARD [12] WEDDING CRASHERS [13] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [14] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [15] CINDERELLA MAN [16] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [17] BEWITCHED [18] RED EYE [19] SISTERHOOD ~ TRAVELING PANTS [20] KICKING AND SCREAMING	Doug French's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] MADAGASCAR [05] FANTASTIC FOUR [06] THE ISLAND [07] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [08] STEALTH [09] BEWITCHED [10] THE LONGEST YARD [11] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [12] CINDERELLA MAN [13] WEDDING CRASHERS [14] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [15] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [16] KICKING AND SCREAMING [17] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [18] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [19] MONSTER-IN-LAW [20] THE BAD NEWS BEARS	Beck's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] FANTASTIC FOUR [04] BATMAN BEGINS [05] MADAGASCAR [06] THE LONGEST YARD [07] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [08] STEALTH [09] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [10] BEWITCHED [11] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [12] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [13] THE ISLAND [14] WEDDING CRASHERS [15] KICKING AND SCREAMING [16] THE BROTHERS GRIMM [17] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [18] CINDERELLA MAN [19] THE PINK PANTHER [20] DARK WATER	Pook's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] MADAGASCAR [03] WAR OF THE WORLDS [04] THE LONGEST YARD [05] FANTASTIC FOUR [06] CINDERELLA MAN [07] BEWITCHED [08] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [09] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [10] KICKING AND SCREAMING [11] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [12] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [13] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [14] BATMAN BEGINS [15] DARK WATER [16] STEALTH [17] THE ISLAND [18] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [19] VALIANT [20] HOUSE OF WAX
J-Dog's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] MADAGASCAR [03] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [04] WAR OF THE WORLDS [05] FANTASTIC FOUR [06] MR AND MRS SMITH [07] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [08] BATMAN BEGINS [09] THE ISLAND [10] THE LONGEST YARD [11] STEALTH [12] VALIANT [13] BEWITCHED [14] CINDERELLA MAN [15] WEDDING CRASHERS [16] THE BROTHERS GRIMM [17] THE SKELETON KEY [18] DARK WATER [19] MUST LOVE DOGS [20] CRASH	Knoxville's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [04] BATMAN BEGINS [05] MADAGASCAR [06] FANTASTIC FOUR [07] THE ISLAND [08] THE LONGEST YARD [09] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [10] STEALTH [11] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [12] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [13] CINDERELLA MAN [14] WEDDING CRASHERS [15] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [16] HOUSE OF WAX [17] KICKING AND SCREAMING [18] BEWITCHED [19] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [20] THE PINK PANTHER	Sean Smylie's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] MADAGASCAR [05] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [06] THE FANTASTIC FOUR [07] THE LONGEST YARD [08] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [09] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [10] THE ISLAND [11] THE WEDDING CRASHERS [12] CINDERELLA MAN [13] STEALTH [14] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [15] BEWITCHED [16] THE PINK PANTHER [17] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [18] KICKING AND SCREAMING [19] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [20] THE BROTHERS GRIMM	Holls's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [04] MADAGASCAR [05] BATMAN BEGINS [06] FANTASTIC FOUR [07] WEDDING CRASHERS [08] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [09] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [10] KICKING AND SCREAMING [11] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [12] BEWITCHED [13] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [14] STEALTH [15] THE ISLAND [16] CINDERELLA MAN [17] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [18] THE BROTHERS GRIMM [19] THE CAVE [20] DARK WATER
Mrs. T's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] MADAGASCAR [03] WAR OF THE WORLDS [04] KICKING AND SCREAMING [05] FANTASTIC FOUR [06] DUKES OF HAZZARD [07] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [08] BATMAN BEGINS [09] WEDDING CRASHERS [10] LONGEST YARD [11] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [12] THE ISLAND [13] DARK WATER [14] BEWITCHED [15] CINDERELLA MAN [16] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [17] STEALTH [18] MR AND MRS SMITH [19] SISTERHOOD ~ TRAVELING PANTS [20] MUST LOVE DOGS	Magda's top 20 [01] BATMAN BEGINS [02] MADAGASCAR [03] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [04] WAR OF THE WORLDS [05] THE LONGEST YARD [06] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [07] FANTASTIC FOUR [08] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [09] UNLEASHED [10] WEDDING CRASHERS [11] STEALTH [12] KICKING AND SCREAMING [13] HOUSE OF WAX [14] THE ISLAND [15] SISTERHOOD ~ TRAVELING PANTS [16] BEWITCHED [17] DUKES OF HAZZARD [18] VALIANT [19] THE PERFECT MAN [20] DARK WATER	Loki's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] MADAGASCAR [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [05] WAR OF THE WORLDS [06] FANTASTIC FOUR [07] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [08] THE LONGEST YARD [09] THE ISLAND [10] THE PINK PANTHER [11] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [12] BEWITCHED [13] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [14] STEALTH [15] CINDERELLA MAN [16] DARK WATER [17] DUKES OF HAZARD [18] WEDDING CRASHERS [19] BAD NEWS BEARS [20] CRASH	Scott Chew's top 20 [01] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [04] MADAGASCAR [05] MR AND MRS SMITH [06] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [07] FANTASTIC FOUR [08] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [09] BATMAN BEGINS [10] THE LONGEST YARD [11] HOUSE OF WAX [12] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [13] THE PINK PANTHER [14] BEWITCHED [15] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [16] CINDERELLA MAN [17] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [18] DARK WATER [19] STEALTH [20] THE BROTHERS GRIMM
Marcello's top 20 [01] WAR OF THE WORLDS [02] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [05] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [06] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [07] FANTASTIC FOUR [08] MADAGASCAR [09] THE ISLAND [10] STEALTH [11] THE CAVE [12] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [13] CINDERELLA MAN [14] THE PINK PANTHER [15] LAND OF THE DEAD [16] RED EYE [17] DEUCE BIGALOW: EURO~ GIGOLO [18] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [19] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [20] KICKING AND SCREAMING	Ryan Sochol's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] BATMAN BEGINS [03] MADAGASCAR [04] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [05] WAR OF THE WORLDS [06] FANTASTIC FOUR [07] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [08] THE ISLAND [09] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [10] WEDDING CRASHERS [11] CINDERELLA MAN [12] THE DUKES OF HAZARD [13] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [14] THE LONGEST YARD [15] THE BROTHERS GRIMM [16] KICKING AND SCREAMING [17] DEUCE BIGALOW: EURO~ GIGOLO [18] REBOUND [19] BEWITCHED [20] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED	Rawbrick's top 20 [01] BATMAN BEGINS [02] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [03] WAR OF THE WORLDS [04] MADAGASCAR [05] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [06] THE ISLAND [07] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [08] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [09] DARK WATER [10] UNLEASHED [11] CINDERELLA MAN [12] RED EYE [13] FANTASTIC FOUR [14] LAND OF THE DEAD [15] THE BROTHERS GRIMM [16] STEALTH [17] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD [18] BEWITCHED [19] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [20] THE PINK PANTHER	El Fuego's top 20 [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] WAR OF THE WORLDS [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] MADAGASCAR [05] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [06] THE LONGEST YARD [07] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [08] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [09] FANTASTIC FOUR [10] STEALTH [11] THE ISLAND [12] BEWITCHED [13] CINDERELLA MAN [14] DARK WATER [15] WEDDING CRASHERS [16] HERBIE: FULLY LOADED [17] DUKES OF HAZZARD [18] SISTERHOOD ~ TRAVELING PANTS [19] THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN [20] BAD NEWS BEARS

Last but not least: Kevin Sinclair's top 20: [01] SW: EP 3: REVENGE OF THE SITH [02] MADAGASCAR [03] BATMAN BEGINS [04] WAR OF THE WORLDS
[05] MR. AND MRS. SMITH [06] FANTASTIC FOUR [07] CHARLIE ~ CHOCOLATE FACTORY [08] THE LONGEST YARD [09] KINGDOM OF HEAVEN [10] BEWITCHED
[11] CINDERELLA MAN [12] WEDDING CRASHERS [13] THE BAD NEWS BEARS [14] KICKING AND SCREAMING [15] STEALTH [16] THE DUKES OF HAZZARD
[17] THE ISLAND [18] MONSTER IN-LAW [19] SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL [20] THE PINK PANTHER

What happened last summer?
Last summer SHREK 2 trounced the favorite, SPIDER-MAN 2; THE BOURNE SUPREMACY surprised nearly everyone with a strong 5th place finish; FAHRENHEIT 9/11 came out of nowhere; KING ARTHUR bombed (stateside); and THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW did better than it had any right to. As for the predictors: Knoxville was the winner and Beck placed a strong second. I placed a respectable 4th. [See details.]