woodge.com > movies > summer 2006 movie predictions
See you next year.
Last update:
OCT 17   After a month of no change among the top 20 movies, this year's contest comes to an end. Doug French is the winner, narrowly squeaking by two-time winner Knoxville. Yours truly takes 3rd place.

The Pirates stole the show, Pixar can do no wrong, Superman flies low, Will Ferrell mints money, a chick flick surprises everyone, a late-entry dance movie cracks the top 20, Snakes On A Plane defeats the buzz with low box office, and M. Night Shyamalan may be all washed up.

See you all(?) next year when I predict Pirates 3 may sneak into the top 10.

Previous 3 updates:
OCT 03   No change among the top 20 movies. Again. Hey... ya think Pirates 3 will be a good bet next summer?
SEP 26   No change among the top 20 movies. The only real mover was Invincible but it would have to make another 6 million to crack the top 20. Not likely.
SEP 19   World Trade Center and Barnyard trade places again with Barnyard ahead by a mere 40K but also earning more in the past week. Step Up climbs over Miami Vice and other than that the top 20 remain unchanged. The top 4 contestants from last week remain unchanged as well.

Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2006
Welcome to the sixth annual SUMMER MOVIE PREDICTIONS. On this page I detail the box office predictions made by all the contestants for this summer's crop of blockbusters, hopefuls, and worthless crap.

All eligible contestants will have submitted their predictions to me by the due date of MAY 3RD.

All of the predictions are for movies released from MAY 1ST through AUGUST 31ST. Predictions will not be tampered with once the challenge begins, even if they make the participants look really stupid (see last year).

Top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders.

 

 

The Contestants:
W Woodge DF Doug French B Beck P Pook JB J-Dog K Knoxville SS Sean Smylie
H Holls ET Mrs. T EF El Fuego L Loki SC Scott Chew MP Marcello RS Ryan Sochol
RB Rawbrick KS Kris Smylie R Rufio BR Bunny ZD Zach D K2 Kevin Sinclair MM Ms. Melly


MOVIE RELEASE DATE W DF B P JB K SS H ET EF L SC MP RS RB KS R BR ZD K2 MM   ACTUAL RANK /
BOX OFFICE TOTAL
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest Jul 7 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2   1 / 421.1 mil
Cars Jun 9 2 1 2 2 8 2 3 9 4 4 2 2 2 5 3 3 6 4 3 5 9   2 / 244.1 mil
X-Men 3: The Last Stand May 26 4 4 6 5 3 4 5 2 3 7 4 3 3 4 5 5 3 5 5 4 1   3 / 234.4 mil
The Da Vinci Code May 19 6 2 4 6 2 5 2 5 6 5 3 4 5 7 6 4 4 3 4 6 5   4 / 217.5 mil
Superman Returns Jun 28 5 6 3 3 5 3 4 6 1 2 5 6 7 1 1 6 2 1 1 1 4   5 / 199.7 mil
Over The Hedge May 19 7 7 8 7 6 7 8 10 7 6 6 8 6 6 8 8 7 7 12 7 6   6 / 155.0 mil
Talledega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby Aug 4 12 11 10 16 12 10 7 10 13 18 19 10 10 11 11 18 10 11   7 / 148.2 mil
Click Jun 23 8 8 9 11 7 8 11 13 19 10 9 7 8 8 9 10 16 9 9 8 8   8 / 137.3 mil
Mission: Impossible 3 May 5 3 5 5 4 4 6 6 3 2 3 8 5 1 3 4 2 5 6 7 3 3   9 / 133.4 mil
The Devil Wears Prada Jun 30 15 15 19 20 20 10 / 124.3 mil
The Break-Up Jun 2 9 9 14 12 11 11 9 8 9 16 16 14 9 11 9 9 19 14 11 7 11 / 118.7 mil
Nacho Libre Jun 16 12 18 15 11 13 19 9 15 14 17 19 12 / 80.2 mil
You, Me, and Dupree Jul 14 15 13 15 15 19 13 14 14 12 9 7 11 12 17 13 12 11 15 12 13 / 75.6 mil
Monster House Jul 21 16 15 11 9 17 19 15 11 11 13 13 12 14 / 73.4 mil
The Barnyard Aug 4 18 17 20 16 15 / 72.1 mil
World Trade Center Aug 9 18 7 10 12 14 16 19 10 13 18 15 8 14 16 / 70.2 mil
Step Up Aug 11 17 / 65.3 mil
Miami Vice Jul 28 10 17 13 13 9 10 12 11 20 12 12 10 10 14 16 14 8 10 10 15 13 18 / 63.4 mil
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift Jun 16 13 9 20 12 19 19 16 19 / 62.5 mil
Poseidon May 12 11 10 12 8 10 9 7 4 8 8 14 15 13 12 7 7 10 16 6 9 10 20 / 60.7 mil
Little Man Jul 14 20 15 17 58.3 mil
Invincible Aug 25 57.3 mil
Omen 666 Jun 6 20 18 16 19 19 19 13 18 54.6 mil
The Lake House Jun 16 19 19 20 19 52.3 mil
Lady in the Water Jul 21 17 14 14 14 15 13 16 18 14 16 17 13 13 15 20 12 13 14 42.3 mil
Snakes on a Plane Aug 18 14 19 18 17 20 11 17 17 15 17 14 20 20 17 33.9 mil
Garfield 2 Jun 23 16 20 18 17 18 14 16 28.4 mil
The Ant Bully Jul 28 17 18 15 16 18 8 16 27.8 mil
Clerks II: The Passion of the Clerks Jul 21 20 11 14 16 20 17 15 24.1 mil
My Super Ex-Girlfriend Jul 21 20 16 13 20 18 19 16 11 20 22.5 mil
A Prairie Home Companion Jun 9 19 18 20.33 mil
Pulse Aug 11 17 12 12 18 18 20.3 mil
Just My Luck May 12 19 14 20 17.3 mil
American Haunting May 5 17 16.3 mil
Zoom Aug 11 20 15 11.6 mil
How to Eat Fried Worms Aug 25 12 12.9 mil
The Night Listener Aug 4 17 7.8 mil
Hoot May 5 13 15 7.8 mil
A Scanner Darkly Jul 7 16 18 20 18 18 5.5 mil

DELAYED
Pathfinder Sep 8 17   n / n.n mil
The Reaping Mar 30 17   n / n.n mil

Deviation Score:
The deviation score is weighted. Here's how it works:

Take the absolute value of a movie's deviation. For example: If it's picked it to come in 3rd, the actual rank is 7th, then the deviation is 4. Or, picked to come in 8th, actual rank is 3rd, deviation is 5. (A perfect score is zero. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21.)
Multiply the deviation by the weight. The weight is equal to 21 minus the actual ranking. Therefore, if a movie's rank is 5 then it's weight is 16. If the rank is 1, the weight is 20.
Tally these numbers.
Subtract this tally from 2000. The highest number is the best.

With this method, the most importance (i.e. weight) is given to the top rated movie and it decreases as you reach #20.

SCORE RANK
W Woodge 1432 3
DF Doug French 1530 1
B Beck 1388 5
P Pook 1306 14
JB J-Dog 1237 18
K Knoxville 1515 2
SS Sean Smylie 1402 4
H Holls 1276 15
ET Mrs. T 1218 19
EF El Fuego 1335 10
L Loki 1357 8
SC Scott Chew 1274 16
MP Marcello 1334 11
RS Ryan Sochol 1324 12
RB Rawbrick 1352 9
KS Kris Smylie 1360 7
R Rufio 1315 13
BR Bunny 1187 20
ZD Zach D 1118 21
K2 Kevin Sinclair 1379 6
MM Ms. Melly 1240 17
  Notes:
• Release dates are subject to change and often do.
• Numerous limited release movies scheduled to open during the summer. Too many to list here, but most of my release date info comes from either Yahoo! or Box Office Mojo.
• Movies need not be listed above to be contenders. They need only be domestic releases released somewhere from May 1st to August 31st.
• There's no specific cut-off date. Contests typically end in early October because that is when the top 20 list "stabilizes." That is, if movies are still earning by that point, the receipts are dribbling in to such a degree that they do not affect their ranking.
• I will only end the contest after two or three weeks of an unchanging box office rank.

Premiere Mag's Pick's:
Premiere Magazine's top 10 picks with [estimate box office take in millions]:

01 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest [300]
02 Superman Returns [230]
03 Cars [225]
04 X-Men 3: The Last Stand [220]
05 Mission: Impossible 3 [210]
06 Over The Hedge [180]
07 The Da Vinci Code [170]
08 Click [150]
09 Miami Vice [120]
10 You, Me, and Dupree [110]

Entertainment Weekly's Pick's:
Entertainment Weekly's top 10 picks with [estimate box office take in millions]:

01 Superman Returns [300]
02 Mission: Impossible 3 [260]
03 X-Men 3: The Last Stand [240]
04 Cars [235]
05 The Da Vinci Code [225]
06 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest [200]
07 Over The Hedge [175]
08 Poseidon [140]
09 The Break-Up [120]
10 Talladega Nights [115]


Woodge's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Cars
[03] Mission: Impossible 3
[04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[05] Superman Returns
[06] The Da Vinci Code
[07] Over The Hedge
[08] Click
[09] The Break-Up
[10] Miami Vice
[11] Poseidon
[12] Talledega Nights
[13] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift
[14] Snakes on a Plane
[15] You, Me, and Dupree
[16] Monster House
[17] Lady in the Water
[18] World Trade Center
[19] The Lake House
[20] My Super Ex-Girlfriend

Doug French's top 20
[01] Cars
[02] The Da Vinci Code
[03] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[05] Mission: Impossible 3
[06] Superman Returns
[07] Over the Hedge
[08] Click
[09] The Break-Up
[10] Poseidon
[11] Talladega Nights: Ricky Bobby
[12] Nacho Libre
[13] You, Me, and Dupree
[14] Lady in the Water
[15] Monster House
[16] Garfield 2
[17] Miami Vice
[18] Barnyard
[19] Snakes on a Plane
[20] Omen 666

Beck's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Cars
[03] Superman Returns
[04] The Da Vinci Code
[05] Mission: Impossible 3
[06] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[07] World Trade Center
[08] Over The Hedge
[09] Click
[10] Talledega Nights
[11] Monster House
[12] Poseidon
[13] Miami Vice
[14] The Break-Up
[15] You, Me, And Dupree
[16] My Super Ex-Girlfriend
[17] The Ant Bully
[18] Snakes On A Plane
[19] A Prairie Home Companion
[20] Zoom

Pook's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Cars
[03] Superman Returns
[04] Mission: Impossible 3
[05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[06] The Da Vinci Code
[07] Over The Hedge
[08] Poseidon
[09] Monster House
[10] World Trade Center
[11] Click
[12] The Break-Up
[13] Miami Vice
[14] Lady in the Water
[15] You, Me, and Dupree
[16] Talledega Nights
[17] The Barnyard
[18] The Ant Bully
[19] Just My Luck
[20] Garfield 2

J-Dog's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] The Da Vinci Code
[03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[04] Mission: Impossible 3
[05] Superman Returns
[06] Over The Hedge
[07] Click
[08] Cars
[09] Miami Vice
[10] Poseidon
[11] The Break-Up
[12] World Trade Center
[13] My Super Ex-Girlfriend
[14] Lady In The Water
[15] Devil Wears Prada
[16] A Scanner Darkly
[17] Pulse
[18] The Omen 666
[19] You, Me, and Dupree
[20] Little Man

Knoxville's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Cars
[03] Superman Returns
[04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[05] The Da Vinci Code
[06] Mission: Impossible 3
[07] Over the Hedge
[08] Click
[09] Poseidon
[10] Miami Vice
[11] The Break Up
[12] Talladega Nights
[13] You, Me, and Dupree
[14] World Trade Center
[15] Lady in the Water
[16] The Omen
[17] Monster House
[18] Nacho Libre
[19] The Lake House
[20] My Super Ex-Girlfriend

Sean Smylie's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Da Vinci Code
[03] Cars
[04] Superman Returns
[05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[06] Mission: Impossible 3
[07] Poseidon
[08] Over The Hedge
[09] The Break Up
[10] Talladega Nights
[11] Click
[12] Miami Vice
[13] The Lady In The Water
[14] You, Me, and Dupree
[15] Ant Bully
[16] World Trade Center
[17] Snakes On A Plane
[18] My Super Ex Girlfriend
[19] Monster House
[20] The Barnyard

Holls's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[03] Mission: Impossible 3
[04] Poseidon
[05] The Da Cinci Code
[06] Superman Returns
[07] Talledega Nights
[08] The Break-up
[09] Cars
[10] Over the Hedge
[11] Miami Vice
[12] Pulse
[13] Click
[14] You, Me, and Dupree
[15] Nacho Libe
[16] Lady in the Water
[17] American Haunting
[18] Garfield
[19] World Trade Center
[20] Snakes on a Plane

Mrs. T's top 20
[01] Superman Returns
[02] Mission: Impossible 3
[03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[04] Cars
[05] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[06] Da Vinci Code
[07] Over The Hedge
[08] Poseidon
[09] The Break Up
[10] Talledega Nights
[11] Snakes On A Plane
[12] You, Me, and Dupree
[13] Hoot
[14] Just My Luck
[15] Devil Wears Prada
[16] Barnyard
[17] The Reaping
[18] Lady In The Water
[19] Click
[20] Miami Vice

El Fuego's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Superman Returns
[03] Mission: Impossible 3
[04] Cars
[05] The DaVinci Code
[06] Over The Hedge
[07] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[08] Poseidon
[09] You, Me, and Dupree
[10] Click
[11] Nacho Libre
[12] Miami Vice
[13] Talladega Nights
[14] Lady In The Water
[15] Monster House
[16] The Break-Up
[17] Snakes On A Plane
[18] A Scanner Darkly
[19] The Devil Wears Prada
[20] Clerks 2

Loki's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Cars
[03] Da Vinci Code
[04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[05] Superman Returns
[06] Over The Hedge
[07] You, Me and Dupree
[08] Mission: Impossible 3
[09] CLick
[10] World Trade Center
[11] Clerks II
[12] Miami Vice
[13] Nacho Libe
[14] Poseidon
[15] Hoot
[16] The Break-Up
[17] Pathfinder
[18] Prairie Home Companion
[19] Omen 666
[20] Lake House

Scott Chew's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Cars
[03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[04] The Davinci Code
[05] Mission: Impossible 3
[06] Superman Returns
[07] Click
[08] Over the Hedge
[09] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift
[10] Miami Vice
[11] You, Me and Dupree
[12] Pulse
[13] World Trade Center
[14] Clerks II
[15] Poseiden
[16] Lady in the Water
[17] Garfield 2
[18] Talledega Nights
[19] Nacho Libre
[20] A Scanner Darkly

Marcello's top 20
[01] Mission: Impossible 3
[02] Cars
[03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[04] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[05] Da Vinci Code
[06] Over The Hedge
[07] Superman Returns
[08] Click
[09] Nacho Libre
[10] Miami Vice
[11] Monster House
[12] You, Me And Dupree
[13] Poseidon
[14] The Break Up
[15] Little Man
[16] The Ant Bully
[17] Lady In The Water
[18] World Trade Center
[19] Talladega Nights
[20] The Devil Wears Prada

Ryan Sochol's top 20
[01] Superman Returns
[02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[03] Mission: Impossible 3
[04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[05] Cars
[06] Over the Hedge
[07] The Da Vinci Code
[08] Click
[09] The Break-up
[10] Talledega Nights
[11] Monster House
[12] Poseidon
[13] Lady in the Water
[14] Miami Vice
[15] Nacho Libre
[16] Clerks 2
[17] Snakes on a Plane
[18] Pulse
[19] My Super Ex-girlfriend
[20] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift

Rawbrick's top 20
[01] Superman Returns
[02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[03] Cars
[04] Mission: Impossible 3
[05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[06] The Da Vinci Code
[07] Poseiden
[08] Over the Hedge
[09] Click
[10] Talledega Nights
[11] The Break-Up
[12] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift
[13] Lady in the Water
[14] Nacho Libre
[15] Snakes on a Plane
[16] Miami Vice
[17] You, Me and Dupree
[18] Garfield 2
[19] Omen 666
[20] Just My Luck

Kris Smylie's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Mission: Impossible 3
[03] Cars
[04] Da Vinci Code
[05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[06] Superman Returns
[07] Poseidon
[08] Over the Hedge
[09] The Breakup
[10] Click
[11] Talladega Nights
[12] How to Eat Fried Worms
[13] You Me & Dupree
[14] Miami Vice
[15] Lady in the Water
[16] My Super Ex Girlfriend
[17] Snakes on a Plane
[18] The Ant Bully
[19] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift
[20] Clerks II

Rufio's top 20
[01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[02] Superman Returns
[03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[04] The DaVinci Code
[05] Mission: Impossible 3
[06] Cars
[07] Over the Hedge
[08] Miami Vice
[09] The Break-Up
[10] Poseidon
[11] Talladega Nights
[12] You, Me, and Dupree
[13] Monster House
[14] Snakes on a Plane
[15] World Trade Center
[16] Click
[17] Clerks II
[18] A Scanner Darkly
[19] The Omen 666
[20] Lady in the Water

Bunny's top 20
[01] Superman Returns
[02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[03] The Da Vinci Code
[04] Cars
[05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[06] Mission: Impossible 3
[07] Over the Hedge
[08] The Ant Bully
[09] Click
[10] Miami Vice
[11] You, Me, and Dupree
[12] Lady In Water
[13] Omen 666
[14] Garfield 2
[15] Zoom
[16] Poseidon
[17] Nacho Libre
[18] Talledega Nights
[19] The Break Up
[20] Snakes on a Plane

Zach D's top 20
[01] Superman Returns
[02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[03] Cars
[04] The Da Vinci Code
[05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[06] Poseidon
[07] Mission: Impossible 3
[08] World Trade Center
[09] Click
[10] Miami Vice
[11] My Super Ex-Girlfriend
[12] Over the Hedge
[13] Lady in the Water
[14] The Break Up
[15] You, Me, and Dupree
[16] The Ant Bully
[17] The Night Listener
[18] A Scanner Darkly
[19] The Lake House
[20] The Devil Wears Prada

Kevin Sinclair's top 20
[01] Superman Returns
[02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[03] Mission: Impossible 3
[04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[05] Cars
[06] The Da Vinci Code
[07] Over the Hedge
[08] Click
[09] Poseidon
[10] Talledega Nights
[11] The Break-Up
[12] You, Me, & Dupree
[13] Monster House
[14] World Trade Center
[15] Miami Vice
[16] Garfield 2
[17] Little Man
[18] Omen 666
[19] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift
[20] Snakes on a Plane

Ms. Melly's top 20
[01] X-Men 3: The Last Stand
[02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC
[03] Mission: Impossible 3
[04] Superman Returns
[05] The Da Vinci Code
[06] Over The Hedge
[07] The Break-up
[08] Click
[09] Cars
[10] Poseidon
[11] Talledega Nights
[12] Monster House
[13] Miami Vice
[14] Lady in the Water
[15] Clerks 2
[16] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift
[17] Snakes on a Plane
[18] Pulse
[19] Nacho Libre
[20] My Super Ex-Girlfriend

What happened last summer?
Last summer revenge of the sith took the expected first place, followed by war of the worlds. the wedding crashers was the surprise third place finisher while stealth and the island bombed. As for the predictors: Knoxville was the winner for the 2nd year in a row followed by Sean Smylie. I placed a respectable 5th. [See details.]