summer 2006 movie predictions

Last update:
OCT 17 After a month of no change among the top 20 movies, this year's contest comes to an end. Doug French is the winner, narrowly squeaking by two-time winner Knoxville. Yours truly takes 3rd place.

The Pirates stole the show, Pixar can do no wrong, Superman flies low, Will Ferrell mints money, a chick flick surprises everyone, a late-entry dance movie cracks the top 20, Snakes On A Plane defeats the buzz with low box office, and M. Night Shyamalan may be all washed up.

See you all(?) next year when I predict Pirates 3 may sneak into the top 10.

Previous 3 updates:
OCT 03 No change among the top 20 movies. Again. Hey... ya think Pirates 3 will be a good bet next summer?
SEP 26 No change among the top 20 movies. The only real mover was Invincible but it would have to make another 6 million to crack the top 20. Not likely.
SEP 19 World Trade Center and Barnyard trade places again with Barnyard ahead by a mere 40K but also earning more in the past week. Step Up climbs over Miami Vice and other than that the top 20 remain unchanged. The top 4 contestants from last week remain unchanged as well.

Top 20 Summer Movie Predictions of 2006
Welcome to the sixth annual SUMMER MOVIE PREDICTIONS. On this page I detail the box office predictions made by all the contestants for this summer's crop of blockbusters, hopefuls, and worthless crap.

All eligible contestants will have submitted their predictions to me by the due date of MAY 3RD.

All of the predictions are for movies released from MAY 1ST through AUGUST 31ST. Predictions will not be tampered with once the challenge begins, even if they make the participants look really stupid (see last year).

Top 20 lists are posted under the main table of contenders.

YAHOO BOX OFFICE BOX OFFICE MOJO

The Contestants:

W Woodge DF Doug French B Beck P Pook JB J-Dog K Knoxville SS Sean Smylie

H Holls ET Mrs. T EF El Fuego L Loki SC Scott Chew MP Marcello RS Ryan Sochol

RB Rawbrick KS Kris Smylie R Rufio BR Bunny ZD Zach D K2 Kevin Sinclair MM Ms. Melly

MOVIE	RELEASE DATE	W	DF	B	P	JB	K	SS	H	ET	EF	L	SC	MP	RS	RB	KS	R	BR	ZD	K2	MM	ACTUAL RANK / BOX OFFICE TOTAL
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest	Jul 7	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	1	1	1	4	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	1 / 421.1 mil
Cars	Jun 9	2	1	2	2	8	2	3	9	4	4	2	2	2	5	3	3	6	4	3	5	9	2 / 244.1 mil
X-Men 3: The Last Stand	May 26	4	4	6	5	3	4	5	2	3	7	4	3	3	4	5	5	3	5	5	4	1	3 / 234.4 mil
The Da Vinci Code	May 19	6	2	4	6	2	5	2	5	6	5	3	4	5	7	6	4	4	3	4	6	5	4 / 217.5 mil
Superman Returns	Jun 28	5	6	3	3	5	3	4	6	1	2	5	6	7	1	1	6	2	1	1	1	4	5 / 199.7 mil
Over The Hedge	May 19	7	7	8	7	6	7	8	10	7	6	6	8	6	6	8	8	7	7	12	7	6	6 / 155.0 mil
Talledega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby	Aug 4	12	11	10	16		12	10	7	10	13		18	19	10	10	11	11	18		10	11	7 / 148.2 mil
Click	Jun 23	8	8	9	11	7	8	11	13	19	10	9	7	8	8	9	10	16	9	9	8	8	8 / 137.3 mil
Mission: Impossible 3	May 5	3	5	5	4	4	6	6	3	2	3	8	5	1	3	4	2	5	6	7	3	3	9 / 133.4 mil
The Devil Wears Prada	Jun 30					15				15	19			20						20			10 / 124.3 mil
The Break-Up	Jun 2	9	9	14	12	11	11	9	8	9	16	16		14	9	11	9	9	19	14	11	7	11 / 118.7 mil
Nacho Libre	Jun 16		12				18		15		11	13	19	9	15	14			17			19	12 / 80.2 mil
You, Me, and Dupree	Jul 14	15	13	15	15	19	13	14	14	12	9	7	11	12		17	13	12	11	15	12		13 / 75.6 mil
Monster House	Jul 21	16	15	11	9		17	19			15			11	11			13			13	12	14 / 73.4 mil
The Barnyard	Aug 4		18		17			20		16													15 / 72.1 mil
World Trade Center	Aug 9	18		7	10	12	14	16	19			10	13	18				15		8	14		16 / 70.2 mil
Step Up	Aug 11																						17 / 65.3 mil
Miami Vice	Jul 28	10	17	13	13	9	10	12	11	20	12	12	10	10	14	16	14	8	10	10	15	13	18 / 63.4 mil
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift	Jun 16	13											9		20	12	19				19	16	19 / 62.5 mil
Poseidon	May 12	11	10	12	8	10	9	7	4	8	8	14	15	13	12	7	7	10	16	6	9	10	20 / 60.7 mil
Little Man	Jul 14					20								15							17		58.3 mil
Invincible	Aug 25																						57.3 mil
Omen 666	Jun 6		20			18	16					19				19		19	13		18		54.6 mil
The Lake House	Jun 16	19					19					20								19			52.3 mil
Lady in the Water	Jul 21	17	14		14	14	15	13	16	18	14		16	17	13	13	15	20	12	13		14	42.3 mil
Snakes on a Plane	Aug 18	14	19	18				17	20	11	17				17	15	17	14	20		20	17	33.9 mil
Garfield 2	Jun 23		16		20				18				17			18			14		16		28.4 mil
The Ant Bully	Jul 28			17	18			15						16			18		8	16			27.8 mil
Clerks II: The Passion of the Clerks	Jul 21										20	11	14		16		20	17				15	24.1 mil
My Super Ex-Girlfriend	Jul 21	20		16		13	20	18							19		16			11		20	22.5 mil
A Prairie Home Companion	Jun 9			19								18											20.33 mil
Pulse	Aug 11					17			12				12		18							18	20.3 mil
Just My Luck	May 12				19					14						20							17.3 mil
American Haunting	May 5								17														16.3 mil
Zoom	Aug 11			20															15				11.6 mil
How to Eat Fried Worms	Aug 25																12						12.9 mil
The Night Listener	Aug 4																			17			7.8 mil
Hoot	May 5									13		15											7.8 mil
A Scanner Darkly	Jul 7					16					18		20					18		18			5.5 mil

DELAYED
Pathfinder	Sep 8											17											n / n.n mil
The Reaping	Mar 30									17													n / n.n mil

Deviation Score:
The deviation score is weighted. Here's how it works:

Take the absolute value of a movie's deviation. For example: If it's picked it to come in 3rd, the actual rank is 7th, then the deviation is 4. Or, picked to come in 8th, actual rank is 3rd, deviation is 5. (A perfect score is zero. If no prediction was entered, the score is figured against an entry of 21.)
Multiply the deviation by the weight. The weight is equal to 21 minus the actual ranking. Therefore, if a movie's rank is 5 then it's weight is 16. If the rank is 1, the weight is 20.
Tally these numbers.
Subtract this tally from 2000. The highest number is the best.

With this method, the most importance (i.e. weight) is given to the top rated movie and it decreases as you reach #20.

		SCORE	RANK
W	Woodge	1432	3
DF	Doug French	1530	1
B	Beck	1388	5
P	Pook	1306	14
JB	J-Dog	1237	18
K	Knoxville	1515	2
SS	Sean Smylie	1402	4
H	Holls	1276	15
ET	Mrs. T	1218	19
EF	El Fuego	1335	10
L	Loki	1357	8
SC	Scott Chew	1274	16
MP	Marcello	1334	11
RS	Ryan Sochol	1324	12
RB	Rawbrick	1352	9
KS	Kris Smylie	1360	7
R	Rufio	1315	13
BR	Bunny	1187	20
ZD	Zach D	1118	21
K2	Kevin Sinclair	1379	6
MM	Ms. Melly	1240	17

Notes:
• Release dates are subject to change and often do.
• Numerous limited release movies scheduled to open during the summer. Too many to list here, but most of my release date info comes from either Yahoo! or Box Office Mojo.
• Movies need not be listed above to be contenders. They need only be domestic releases released somewhere from May 1st to August 31st.
• There's no specific cut-off date. Contests typically end in early October because that is when the top 20 list "stabilizes." That is, if movies are still earning by that point, the receipts are dribbling in to such a degree that they do not affect their ranking.
• I will only end the contest after two or three weeks of an unchanging box office rank.

Premiere Mag's Pick's:
Premiere Magazine's top 10 picks with [estimate box office take in millions]:

01 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest [300]
02 Superman Returns [230]
03 Cars [225]
04 X-Men 3: The Last Stand [220]
05 Mission: Impossible 3 [210]
06 Over The Hedge [180]
07 The Da Vinci Code [170]
08 Click [150]
09 Miami Vice [120]
10 You, Me, and Dupree [110]

Entertainment Weekly's Pick's:
Entertainment Weekly's top 10 picks with [estimate box office take in millions]:

01 Superman Returns [300]
02 Mission: Impossible 3 [260]
03 X-Men 3: The Last Stand [240]
04 Cars [235]
05 The Da Vinci Code [225]
06 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men's Chest [200]
07 Over The Hedge [175]
08 Poseidon [140]
09 The Break-Up [120]
10 Talladega Nights [115]

Woodge's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Cars [03] Mission: Impossible 3 [04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [05] Superman Returns [06] The Da Vinci Code [07] Over The Hedge [08] Click [09] The Break-Up [10] Miami Vice [11] Poseidon [12] Talledega Nights [13] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift [14] Snakes on a Plane [15] You, Me, and Dupree [16] Monster House [17] Lady in the Water [18] World Trade Center [19] The Lake House [20] My Super Ex-Girlfriend	Doug French's top 20 [01] Cars [02] The Da Vinci Code [03] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [05] Mission: Impossible 3 [06] Superman Returns [07] Over the Hedge [08] Click [09] The Break-Up [10] Poseidon [11] Talladega Nights: Ricky Bobby [12] Nacho Libre [13] You, Me, and Dupree [14] Lady in the Water [15] Monster House [16] Garfield 2 [17] Miami Vice [18] Barnyard [19] Snakes on a Plane [20] Omen 666	Beck's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Cars [03] Superman Returns [04] The Da Vinci Code [05] Mission: Impossible 3 [06] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [07] World Trade Center [08] Over The Hedge [09] Click [10] Talledega Nights [11] Monster House [12] Poseidon [13] Miami Vice [14] The Break-Up [15] You, Me, And Dupree [16] My Super Ex-Girlfriend [17] The Ant Bully [18] Snakes On A Plane [19] A Prairie Home Companion [20] Zoom	Pook's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Cars [03] Superman Returns [04] Mission: Impossible 3 [05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [06] The Da Vinci Code [07] Over The Hedge [08] Poseidon [09] Monster House [10] World Trade Center [11] Click [12] The Break-Up [13] Miami Vice [14] Lady in the Water [15] You, Me, and Dupree [16] Talledega Nights [17] The Barnyard [18] The Ant Bully [19] Just My Luck [20] Garfield 2
J-Dog's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] The Da Vinci Code [03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [04] Mission: Impossible 3 [05] Superman Returns [06] Over The Hedge [07] Click [08] Cars [09] Miami Vice [10] Poseidon [11] The Break-Up [12] World Trade Center [13] My Super Ex-Girlfriend [14] Lady In The Water [15] Devil Wears Prada [16] A Scanner Darkly [17] Pulse [18] The Omen 666 [19] You, Me, and Dupree [20] Little Man	Knoxville's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Cars [03] Superman Returns [04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [05] The Da Vinci Code [06] Mission: Impossible 3 [07] Over the Hedge [08] Click [09] Poseidon [10] Miami Vice [11] The Break Up [12] Talladega Nights [13] You, Me, and Dupree [14] World Trade Center [15] Lady in the Water [16] The Omen [17] Monster House [18] Nacho Libre [19] The Lake House [20] My Super Ex-Girlfriend	Sean Smylie's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Da Vinci Code [03] Cars [04] Superman Returns [05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [06] Mission: Impossible 3 [07] Poseidon [08] Over The Hedge [09] The Break Up [10] Talladega Nights [11] Click [12] Miami Vice [13] The Lady In The Water [14] You, Me, and Dupree [15] Ant Bully [16] World Trade Center [17] Snakes On A Plane [18] My Super Ex Girlfriend [19] Monster House [20] The Barnyard	Holls's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [03] Mission: Impossible 3 [04] Poseidon [05] The Da Cinci Code [06] Superman Returns [07] Talledega Nights [08] The Break-up [09] Cars [10] Over the Hedge [11] Miami Vice [12] Pulse [13] Click [14] You, Me, and Dupree [15] Nacho Libe [16] Lady in the Water [17] American Haunting [18] Garfield [19] World Trade Center [20] Snakes on a Plane
Mrs. T's top 20 [01] Superman Returns [02] Mission: Impossible 3 [03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [04] Cars [05] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [06] Da Vinci Code [07] Over The Hedge [08] Poseidon [09] The Break Up [10] Talledega Nights [11] Snakes On A Plane [12] You, Me, and Dupree [13] Hoot [14] Just My Luck [15] Devil Wears Prada [16] Barnyard [17] The Reaping [18] Lady In The Water [19] Click [20] Miami Vice	El Fuego's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Superman Returns [03] Mission: Impossible 3 [04] Cars [05] The DaVinci Code [06] Over The Hedge [07] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [08] Poseidon [09] You, Me, and Dupree [10] Click [11] Nacho Libre [12] Miami Vice [13] Talladega Nights [14] Lady In The Water [15] Monster House [16] The Break-Up [17] Snakes On A Plane [18] A Scanner Darkly [19] The Devil Wears Prada [20] Clerks 2	Loki's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Cars [03] Da Vinci Code [04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [05] Superman Returns [06] Over The Hedge [07] You, Me and Dupree [08] Mission: Impossible 3 [09] CLick [10] World Trade Center [11] Clerks II [12] Miami Vice [13] Nacho Libe [14] Poseidon [15] Hoot [16] The Break-Up [17] Pathfinder [18] Prairie Home Companion [19] Omen 666 [20] Lake House	Scott Chew's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Cars [03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [04] The Davinci Code [05] Mission: Impossible 3 [06] Superman Returns [07] Click [08] Over the Hedge [09] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift [10] Miami Vice [11] You, Me and Dupree [12] Pulse [13] World Trade Center [14] Clerks II [15] Poseiden [16] Lady in the Water [17] Garfield 2 [18] Talledega Nights [19] Nacho Libre [20] A Scanner Darkly
Marcello's top 20 [01] Mission: Impossible 3 [02] Cars [03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [04] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [05] Da Vinci Code [06] Over The Hedge [07] Superman Returns [08] Click [09] Nacho Libre [10] Miami Vice [11] Monster House [12] You, Me And Dupree [13] Poseidon [14] The Break Up [15] Little Man [16] The Ant Bully [17] Lady In The Water [18] World Trade Center [19] Talladega Nights [20] The Devil Wears Prada	Ryan Sochol's top 20 [01] Superman Returns [02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [03] Mission: Impossible 3 [04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [05] Cars [06] Over the Hedge [07] The Da Vinci Code [08] Click [09] The Break-up [10] Talledega Nights [11] Monster House [12] Poseidon [13] Lady in the Water [14] Miami Vice [15] Nacho Libre [16] Clerks 2 [17] Snakes on a Plane [18] Pulse [19] My Super Ex-girlfriend [20] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift	Rawbrick's top 20 [01] Superman Returns [02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [03] Cars [04] Mission: Impossible 3 [05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [06] The Da Vinci Code [07] Poseiden [08] Over the Hedge [09] Click [10] Talledega Nights [11] The Break-Up [12] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift [13] Lady in the Water [14] Nacho Libre [15] Snakes on a Plane [16] Miami Vice [17] You, Me and Dupree [18] Garfield 2 [19] Omen 666 [20] Just My Luck	Kris Smylie's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Mission: Impossible 3 [03] Cars [04] Da Vinci Code [05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [06] Superman Returns [07] Poseidon [08] Over the Hedge [09] The Breakup [10] Click [11] Talladega Nights [12] How to Eat Fried Worms [13] You Me & Dupree [14] Miami Vice [15] Lady in the Water [16] My Super Ex Girlfriend [17] Snakes on a Plane [18] The Ant Bully [19] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift [20] Clerks II
Rufio's top 20 [01] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [02] Superman Returns [03] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [04] The DaVinci Code [05] Mission: Impossible 3 [06] Cars [07] Over the Hedge [08] Miami Vice [09] The Break-Up [10] Poseidon [11] Talladega Nights [12] You, Me, and Dupree [13] Monster House [14] Snakes on a Plane [15] World Trade Center [16] Click [17] Clerks II [18] A Scanner Darkly [19] The Omen 666 [20] Lady in the Water	Bunny's top 20 [01] Superman Returns [02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [03] The Da Vinci Code [04] Cars [05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [06] Mission: Impossible 3 [07] Over the Hedge [08] The Ant Bully [09] Click [10] Miami Vice [11] You, Me, and Dupree [12] Lady In Water [13] Omen 666 [14] Garfield 2 [15] Zoom [16] Poseidon [17] Nacho Libre [18] Talledega Nights [19] The Break Up [20] Snakes on a Plane	Zach D's top 20 [01] Superman Returns [02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [03] Cars [04] The Da Vinci Code [05] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [06] Poseidon [07] Mission: Impossible 3 [08] World Trade Center [09] Click [10] Miami Vice [11] My Super Ex-Girlfriend [12] Over the Hedge [13] Lady in the Water [14] The Break Up [15] You, Me, and Dupree [16] The Ant Bully [17] The Night Listener [18] A Scanner Darkly [19] The Lake House [20] The Devil Wears Prada	Kevin Sinclair's top 20 [01] Superman Returns [02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [03] Mission: Impossible 3 [04] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [05] Cars [06] The Da Vinci Code [07] Over the Hedge [08] Click [09] Poseidon [10] Talledega Nights [11] The Break-Up [12] You, Me, & Dupree [13] Monster House [14] World Trade Center [15] Miami Vice [16] Garfield 2 [17] Little Man [18] Omen 666 [19] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift [20] Snakes on a Plane
Ms. Melly's top 20 [01] X-Men 3: The Last Stand [02] Pirates ~ Caribbean: DMC [03] Mission: Impossible 3 [04] Superman Returns [05] The Da Vinci Code [06] Over The Hedge [07] The Break-up [08] Click [09] Cars [10] Poseidon [11] Talledega Nights [12] Monster House [13] Miami Vice [14] Lady in the Water [15] Clerks 2 [16] Fast/Furious: Tokyo Drift [17] Snakes on a Plane [18] Pulse [19] Nacho Libre [20] My Super Ex-Girlfriend

What happened last summer?
Last summer revenge of the sith took the expected first place, followed by war of the worlds. the wedding crashers was the surprise third place finisher while stealth and the island bombed. As for the predictors: Knoxville was the winner for the 2nd year in a row followed by Sean Smylie. I placed a respectable 5th. [See details.]